Market Roundup
•US Mar Export Price Index (MoM) -0.3%,-0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
• US Mar Retail Control (MoM) -0.3%,-0.3%,-0.3% forecast,0.5% previous
• US Mar Retail Sales (MoM) -1.0%, -0.4% forecast,-0.4% previous
•US Mar Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) -0.3%,2.8% previous
•US Mar Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.8%,-0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
•US Mar Import Price Index (MoM) -0.6%,-0.1%forecast,-0.1% previous
•US Mar Retail Sales (YoY) 2.94%,5.90%forecast,5.39% previous
•Canada Feb Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -2.7% forecast, 4.1% previous
•US Mar Industrial Production (YoY) 0.53%, -0.90% forecast, 0.32% previous
•US Mar Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.5%,-0.1%forecast,0.1% previous
•US Mar Capacity Utilization Rate 79.8%, 79.0%forecast,79.1% previous
•US Mar Industrial Production (MoM) 0.4%, 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Apr Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.90%,2.80% forecast,2.90% previous
•US Apr Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.6%,3.5% forecast,3.6% previous
•US Apr Michigan Consumer Sentiment 63.5, 62.0 forecast,62.0 previous
•US Apr Michigan Consumer Expectations 60.3,60.0 forecast,59.2 previous
•US Apr Michigan Current Conditions 68.6, 67.3 forecast,66.3 previous
•US Feb Business Inventories (MoM) 0.2%,0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 588, 590 previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 748, 751 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Friday after data showed retail sales fell in March, while a key Fed official warned that the U.S. central bank needs to continue hiking interest rates to bring down inflation.The dollar rebounded from an initial drop after data showed U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in March as consumers cut back on purchases of motor vehicles and other big-ticket items.Core retail sales, which correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, slipped 0.3% last month. However, despite March's fall, the gains in January and February put consumer spending firmly on track to accelerate in the first quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1058(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1100(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0935(5DMA ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0866(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Friday but remained close to a 10-month high against the dollar, supported by improving appetite for risk ahead of a big week of British data that could provide clues on the outlook for monetary policy. In contrast, markets price in around a 65% chance the Bank of England will raise rates by 25 basis points next month and expect another 45 basis points of tightening by year-end.Inflation data released next Wednesday will be closely watched for clues on the outlook for monetary policy, while labour market data (Tuesday), retail sales (Friday) and the flash S&P Global/CIPS purchasing managers index (Friday) could also drive movement in the pound. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2445(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2520(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2393(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2287(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as hawkish comments by a Federal Reserve official bolstered the greenback against a basket of major currencies, but the loonie remained on track for a weekly gain.Canada’s currency has been supported in recent days by a smaller gap between the yields of U.S. and Canadian bonds as signs of cooling U.S. inflation raised expectations for an imminent end to the Fed’s interest rate-hike cycle. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3360 to the greenback, or 74.85 U.S. cents, after earlier touching its strongest level since Feb. 14 at 1.3303. For the week, it was on track to advance 1.1%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3392 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3420(5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3306(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3249(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the yen on Friday after some March retail sales components were not as weak as some economists had feared, while a key Federal Reserve official warned that the U.S. central bank needs to continue hiking interest rates to bring down inflation. Comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Friday, saying higher borrowing costs were needed to restore inflation to the Fed's 2% target, further raised the rate-increase outlook and reduced bets of easing this year. Data showed retail sales dropped 1.0% last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.4% drop. Data for February was revised to show sales falling 0.2% instead of 0.4%. Strong resistance can be seen at 133.87(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.85(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 133.33(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 132.55(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares hit their highest in over a year on Friday and ended their fourth straight week in the green, buoyed by positive earnings from major U.S. banks .
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.36 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.50 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.52 percent.
Wall Street ended lower on Friday as a barrage of mixed economic data appeared to affirm another Federal Reserve interest rate hike, dampening investor enthusiasm after a series of big U.S. bank earnings launched first-quarter reporting season.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.42% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.21% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.35% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday as a mixed batch of data suggested that the world's largest economy is not slowing quickly enough to deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates yet again at the next policy meeting.
U.S. 10-year yields US10YT=RR climbed 6.4 bps to 3.513%. On the week, 10-year yields posted their best gain since mid-February.
U.S. 30-year yields rose 5.8 bps to 3.743% US30YT=RR. For the week, the yields had their largest increase in two months.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices pulled back sharply on Friday after surging to a more than one-year peak in the last session, as the dollar bounced and a Federal Reserve official flagged the need for another interest rate hike.
Spot gold was down 1.8% at $2,003.60 per ounce by 01:52 EDT (17:51 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 1.9% lower at $2,015.80.
Oil prices were up on Friday and secured a fourth straight week of gains after the West's energy watchdog said global demand will hit a record high this year on the back of a recovery in Chinese consumption.
Brent crude futures settled at $86.31 a barrel, rising 22 cents, or 0.3%. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) settled at $82.52 a barrel, gaining 36 cents, or 0.4%.
