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According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, the possibility of an additional 50 basis point (bp) rate cut from the Federal Reserve is gaining traction, despite initial indications that the September cut would be a standalone move.
Deutsche Bank has scrutinized recent Fed communications to understand the conditions under which another substantial rate reduction could occur. While the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting framed the 50bp cut as a one-time event, recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a willingness to consider further rate cuts, according to their latest FOMC statement.
Fed Officials' Comments Signal Flexibility
Jerome Powell, 65. Photo: Reuters
"Governor Waller indicated that he could support additional front-loading if the labor market weakened further or inflation continued to surprise to the downside," Deutsche Bank analysts observed. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had initially suggested that the larger September cut was not part of a hurried shift toward a neutral policy rate.
Furthermore, as explained here by The Economist, Deutsche Bank highlighted that the FOMC’s "dot plot" — a chart summarizing policymakers' projections — showed only 1 out of 19 officials anticipated another 50 bp reduction this year. However, recent statements from a broader range of Fed officials, including typically hawkish figures like Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, show increased openness to another large rate cut if data supports it.
Key Labor Market Data Could Trigger a Cut
As stated by Investing.com, Deutsche Bank analysts emphasize that the labor market is a critical factor in the Fed’s decision-making process. If the unemployment rate trends higher than the median forecast of 4.4% and payroll growth weakens, the analysts believe the Fed may consider another rate cut. “The bar to another 50 bp reduction in November may not be particularly high,” the analysts argue, pointing to softer consumer confidence and labor market sentiment.
Timing of Employment Data May Play a Role
With the October employment report scheduled to fall within the Fed's communications blackout period, Deutsche Bank suggests that any signs of further labor market weakening could be a decisive factor in pushing the Fed toward another significant rate cut.
