Biggest macro themes of 2016 – part 2

This is a continuation part to "Biggest macro themes of 2016 - part 1"
available at http://www.econotimes.com/Biggest-macro-themes-of-2016-%E2%80%93-part-1-137535# . So far we have listed US election, Middle East tensions and who to follow FED over hikes as top macro themes of 2016. Our discussion continues:

UK's EU referendum 

Campaigning for reelection UK Prime Minister David Camron, who came back to power with total majority, promised a referendum on UK's membership in European Union by end 2017 and he said, if demands are not met he might campaign for 'NO' vote. So far, it seems much of UK's demand would be met beforehand and referendum could be held this year only, which makes it biggest macro-economic risks not only for UK but whole Europe. Poll suggests it could be a close call.

Brazil - Olympic relief or Eco-politico turmoil

2016 is an Olympic year for Brazil as it will begin in 5th August, 2015. Due to Olympic, economy usually gets a boost due to presence of foreigners in the country and increased level of spending. Key question will be - Will Olympic bring a fresh air of recovery in Brazil. Difficult to answer, uncertainties are equally great - Brazilian Real has been second worst performer of 2015, inflation is high, economy is in worst recession in 25 years and incumbent president Dilma Rousseff facing impeachment.

How many hikes from FED 

2015 can also be called year of the FED hike expectations. Market and analysts discussed, predicted over first rate hike from FED, which finally got delivered in December. Key question for 2016 is how many more this year? - Considerable uncertainty on that front as market saying two, economists saying three and FED's own dot plot suggesting four of 25 basis points each.