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Briferendum Aftermath Series: OBR’s estimated cost of Brexit

The Office for Budget Responsibilities (OBR) has released its latest estimate of the cost of the Brexit on the UK economy in the autumn statement, which was read out before the House of Commons yesterday by the chancellor of exchequer Phillip Hammond. It is the first-ever report by the OBR since the UK voted to exit EU.

According to the report:

  • As a decision of the UK to leave the European Union, economic growth would suffer by 2.4 percent over the next five years. Growth would get hit dramatically in 2017 when the economy is expected to grow by just 1.7 percent.
  • The referendum vote will add £58.7billion in additional borrowing over the next five years, with the OBR expecting overall borrowing to be hiked by £122 billion over the forecast period.
  • OBR estimates that due to drop in the value of sterling, the government would end up paying £800 million more in fiscal year 2018-19 and 2019-20. There would be an additional cost of £900 million for the fiscal year 2020-21.
  • Due to drop in the exchange rate, inflation would peak in 2018 and above 2 percent.
  • OBR estimates that stricter immigration rules, once the exit is done with would cost the government additional £6 billion per year to make up for the decline in immigration. It would cost the government additional £16 billion by the end of the decade for this cause.

However, OBR notes that there are huge uncertainties associated with any of these estimates of an exit since it is certainly an event not happened before.

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