According to the findings of the 13th coordinated population estimate, in which the Federal Statistical Office assumes net immigration of 230,000 p.a., the population in Germany of working age (between 15 and 65) is expected to shrink by an average 100,000 in the next five years, corresponding to a decline of 0.2% p.a. 

If annual productivity growth remains at 0.8% (the rate of the past ten years), the long-term German economic growth trend over the coming five years should amount to an average ½%. 

"The influx of migrants could alleviate the decline in the working population, so that long-term German growth should be above ½%. However, even if immigrants make up for a shrinking working population and in the best case over-compensate for it, the long-term growth trend is hardly likely to exceed 1%", says Commerzbank. 

Immigrants can after all only be integrated into the labour market over a period of years. Moreover, not all immigrants will enter the labour market - more than25% of them are children. And finally, it is not clear whether the present high influx of immigrants will continue for very many years.