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The Czech National Bank has prolonged its FX commitment to support the CZK until at least end-2016. The bank's board now sees a probable exit in the H1 17. Thus, the "hard" commitment (where CNB ensures the floor for the currency) now corresponds to the probable exit.
The CNB also discussed negative rates during the subsequent press conference. This depends on market circumstances, and it seems that negative rates are currently unnecessary.
The CNB's new inflationary forecast now expects a mild increase in consumer prices this year. Inflation should accelerate at year-end, and hit the 2% target in early 2017. The CNB also assumes that GDP growth will accelerate in Q4 15.
"Our view does not differ as we expect the end of the intervention regime in Q1 17. We expect CPI growth to hover over 2% next year." said Societe Generale in a research note.
