EUR/PLN to poise at 4.25 in coming months

The headline figure of manufacturing showed Poland's industrial output growth is declining from 4.1% yoy to 2.4% yoy in October. In spite of upcoming elections, the manufacturing sector is remained mute in October. 

The adjusted output growth was a decent 4.7% yoy against the January-September average of 4.5% yoy. Therefore, the Q3 GDP is already solid. The real sector activity is seemed to be silent than the PMI trend had indicated.

"The CenBank will likely focus more on continuing low inflation to ease its stance further; this was also signalled by the latest MPC minutes published yesterday, where the council expressed the view that room remains to lower the policy rate further. Overall, we see EUR-PLN hovering around the key 4.25 level in coming months", says Commerzbank in a research note.