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Europe Roundup: Dollar gains vs Euro and Yen, World stocks post first rise in 7 sessions, Oil recovers - Friday, January 8th, 2016

Market Roundup

  • Euro lower after Yuan stabilises, ahead of NFP, plays in between 1.0934 - 1.0874 levels.

  • USD/CNH steady at 6.6845 +0.04%: 915-point spread CNH-CNY.

  • USD/JPY range is 117.40-118.59. Below Thursday' 118.75 peak.

  • GBP/USD consolidates losses to 5-1/2 year 1.4534 low (Thursday).

  • PBOC sets higher Yuan fix for first time in 9 trading days.

  • PBOC to maintain prudent monetary policy.

  • SSEC closes up 2.0% at 3,186.41 points.

  • ECB's Lane if more QE needed can be done.

  • UK November Goods trade balance (non-EU) -2.450bln vs previous -3.551 revised. -3.00bln expected. 

  • UK November Goods trade balance (GBP) -10.642bln vs previous -11.20bln revised. -10.50bln expected.

  • Switzerland December CPI -0.3% m/m, -1.2% y/yvs previous -0.1%/-1.4%. -0.3%/-1.2% expected.

  • SNB flags CHF 23 bln loss still plans payout.

  • India says Chinese currency depreciation "worrying" for exports.

  • China's currency stance tests world policymakers' sense of perspective.

  • BoJ Kuroda - Inflation trend improving but still half way to 2% target.

  • BoJ Iwata - Will maintain QQE.

Economic Data Ahead

  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) U.S. employers likely record a strong pace of hiring in December, Labor Department's report is expected to show that the job market strength could strengthen expectations of another interest rate hike from the Fed in March. Non-farm payrolls likely rose 200,000 last month, on top of the 211,000 added in November. Unemployment rate for December is seen unchanged at a 7-1/2 year-low of 5 percent.
  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) Statistics Canada releases building permits data, which is likely to have dropped 3 percent in November after jumping 9.1 percent in October.
  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The Canadian economy likely gained 10,000 jobs in December after shedding 35,700 jobs in November, with unemployment rate for December seen unchanged at 7.1 percent.
  • (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The Commerce Department will release wholesale inventories data for November, which is expected to stay unchanged at -0.1 pct.
  • (1500 ET/2000 GMT) U.S. consumer credit (change) likely rose to $18.70 bln in November from $15.98 bln in October.

Key Events Ahead

  • (1130 ET/1630 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook before the California Association of Bankers in Santa Barbara.

  • (1300 ET/1800 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker addresses the Maryland Bankers Association's First Friday Economic Outlook Forum.

FX Recap

USD: Amid expectations for a strong payrolls number and the steadying yuan, the dollar rose more than half a percent against both the euro to $1.0878 and yen to 118.34 yen on Friday.

EUR/USD: Germany's foreign trade, one of the components of the country's current account, generated a non-seasonally adjusted surplus of €20.6 billion in the reported period, down from €22.3 billion registered in the previous month. Italy's government budget deficit tightened in the third quarter of last year, data showed on Friday. It made intraday high at 1.0933 and low at 1.0854 levels. Initial support is seen around at 1.0695 and resistance at 1.0960 levels.

USD/JPY: The yen gained roughly 1.7 percent against the dollar and 1.5 percent versus the euro this week. USD recovers against the JPY after the free fall from the beginning of the week. Pair touched the low at 117.32 and currently trading at 118.26 levels. In the data light calendar for the Japan, Market shifts their focus on US NFP job data. Pair made intraday high at 118.59 and low at 117.45 levels. Major resistance is seen at 120.67 and support is seen at 116.54 levels.

GBP/USD
: After the pound hit its lowest in 5 years on Thursday, pressured primarily by a strong US dollar, Friday's session brought some relief to the cable currency pair which bounced above the $1.46 handle. Sterling was trading near a 5-1/2-year low against the dollar and was on track to post a seventh straight week of losses against the euro, as investors bet the Bank of England will not raise interest rates until 2017. It fell as low as $1.4534 on Thursday, a level not seen since June 2010, adding to a fall of around 8 percent in the last six months against the dollar. Against the euro, the pound hit a 2-month low of 74.83 pence on Thursday and is down almost 1 percent for the week, despite being 0.6 percent up on Friday. Pair made intraday high at 1.4644 and low at 1.4603 levels. Initial support is seen at 1.4552 and resistance is seen around 1.4850 levels.

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar rose 0.5 percent to $0.6625, having touched a one-month low of $0.6.590. It was still on track for a 2.5 percent loss this week. Moreover pair is just hovering around 0.66 levels. It made intraday high at 0.6677 and low at 0.6595 levels. Initial support is seen at 0.6601 and resistance at 0.6896 levels.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar was higher, recovering some of this week's more than 3 percent slide. It broke a 4-day losing streak after PBoC set a much higher Yuan guidance rate than expected. It was squeezed more than half a U.S. cent higher to $0.7060, pulling away from a three-month low of $0.6981 set on Thursday. Against the yen, it bounced a full yen to 83.28 but was still within reach of a four-month trough set overnight. Australian retail spending grew 0.4% month-on-month in November, while October sales growth was revised up from 0.5% to 0.6%.Pair made intraday high at 0.7075 levels and low around 0.7002 levels. Initial support is seen at 0.6974 and resistance at 0.7320 levels.

Equities Recap

World stocks posted first gains in seven sessions as Chinese stock gained, yuan steadied and oil prices recovered ahead of first U.S. payrolls report of the year.

A 2 percent gain by Chinese stocks helped Asia end higher for the first time in 2016. Europe followed suit, with the FTSE, DAX and CAC40 up 0.5 to 0.7 percent.

Tokyo's Nikkei average closed down 0.39 pct at 17,697.96 and HK's Hang Seng Index ended up 0.6 pct at 20,453.71 points.

Commodities Recap

Oil prices climbed modestly, still near 11-1/2 year lows, boosted by a recovery in Chinese stocks, but persistent global oversupply and a bleak demand outlook capped gains. Brent rose 58 cents to $34.32 a barrel by 0859 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 46 cents at $33.73 a barrel.

Gold slipped after hitting a 9-week high above $1,100 an ounce, as China guided the yuan higher for the first time in nine days, supporting Asian equities. Spot gold dropped 0.7 percent to $1,101.71 an ounce by 0635 GMT, after climbing to $1,112 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures also fell from a 9-week high.

Treasuries Recap

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries last stood at 2.17807 percent after falling to a 2 1/2-month low of 2.119 percent on Thursday.

German Bunds were steady at 0.539 after their yields fell this week as investors headed into safe assets.

UK Gilts opened 10 ticks higher than the settlement of 118.30, as predicted, despite the improved risk tone noted on the China equity bounce, consternation still exists ahead of US December payrolls and ongoing Middle East tensions.

New Zealand government bonds eased, sending yields slightly higher across the curve. Australian government bond futures were off two-month peaks. The 3-year bond contract eased 3 ticks to 98.020. The 10-year contract shed 5 ticks to 97.2350, while the 20-year contract was down 4.5 ticks to 98.7550.

 

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