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Europe Roundup: Euro gains before Trump's press conference on China, European shares dips, Gold up, Oil falls but remains set for biggest monthly gain in years-May 29th,2020

Market Roundup

• German April Retail Sales (MoM)  -5.3%,-12.0% forecast, -5.6% previous

• German April Import Price Index (YoY)  -7.4%, -7.2% forecast, -5.5% previous

• German April Import Price Index (MoM)   -1.8%, -1.4% forecast, -3.5% previous

• German April Retail Sales (YoY)  -6.5%, -14.3% forecast, -2.8% previous

• French GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  -5.3%               , -5.8%  forecast, -0.1% previous

• French April Consumer Spending (MoM)  -20.2%, -15.0% forecast, -17.9% previous

• French April PPI (MoM)  -2.9%, -1.7% previous

• French CPI (MoM) 0.0%,0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous

• French CPI (YoY) 0.2%,0.3% previous  

• French HICP (MoM) 0.0%,0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous

• French HICP (YoY) 0.2%,0.4%  previous

• Portuguese CPI (MoM) -0.4%,0.3% previous

• EU May CPI (YoY)  0.1%,0.1%   forecast, 0.3% previous

• Italian May  CPI (YoY)  -0.1%,-0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous

• Italian May HICP (MoM)  -0.2%,-0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous

• EU May CPI, n.s.a  0.9%,0.9% previous

• EU CPI (MoM) -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous

•Portuguese GDP (YoY) (Q1) -2.3% forecast, -2.4% forecast, 2.2% previous

•Portuguese GDP (QoQ) (Q1) -3.8% forecast,-3.9% forecast, 0.7% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data

•12:30 Canada GDP (YoY) (Q1) 1.47% previous

•12:30 Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q1) -10.0% forecast, 0.3% previous

•12:30 Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.1% previous

•12:30 Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q1) 0.30% forecast, 1.00% previous      

•12:30 Canada IPPI (YoY)  -2.4% previous

•12:30 Canada April IPPI (MoM)  -1.7%  forecast, -0.9%  previous

•12:30 US April Personal Income (MoM)  -6.5%  forecast, -2.0%  previous

•12:30 US April Personal Spending (MoM)  -12.6% forecast, -7.5% previous

•12:30 US April Real Personal Consumption (MoM)  -7.3% previous

•12:30 US April PCE price index (MoM)  -0.3% previous

•12:30 US April PCE Price index (YoY) 1.3 previous

•12:30 US April Core PCE Price Index (MoM)  -0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous

•12:30 US April  Core PCE Price Index (YoY)  1.1% forecast, 1.7% previous

•12:30 US April Goods Trade Balance -64.38B previous

• 12:30 Canada March GDP (MoM)  -9.0% forecast, 0.0% previous

• 12:30 Corporate Profits (QoQ) 3.6% previous

•12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.8% previous

•13:00 Belgian GDP (QoQ) (Q1) -3.9% forecast, -3.9% previous  

•13:30 Brazil April Debt-to-GDP ratio  52.4% forecast, 51.7% previous

•13:30 Brazil April Budget Balance  -120.100B forecast, -79.700B previous

•13:30 Brazil April Budget Surplus  -118.600B forecast, -23.650B  previous

•13:45 US May Chicago PMI  40.0 forecast, 35.4 previous

•14:00 US May Michigan Current Conditions  83.0 forecast, 74.3 previous

•14:00 US May  Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations  2.50% previous

•14:00 US May Michigan Inflation Expectations  3.0%  forecast, 2.1% previous

•14:00 US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment  74.0 forecast, 71.8 previous        

•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations  67.7 forecast, 70.1 previous             

• 15:00 Canada March Budget Balance 3.58B previous    

• 15:00 Canada March Budget Balance (YoY) -6.98B previous      

• 15:00 Canada April Dallas Fed PCE  1.10% previous        

•18:00 Brazil CAGED Net Payroll Jobs 70.00K forecast, -307.31K previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•17:30 Canada  BoC Gov Poloz Speaks   

Fxbeat

EUR/USD: The euro extended its gains against dollar on Friday as traders waited for U.S. President Donald Trump’s response to China’s tightening control over Hong Kong, which could worsen tensions between the two over the financial hub. The euro, which got a boost from the European Commission's stimulus plan announced earlier this week, rose 0.6% to $1.1140, just beneath the 1.1148 reached on March 30. Going over that level would take the currency to its highest since March 17. The euro was headed for its second weekly gain and its fourth day up after the 750 billion-euro coronavirus recovery fund fuelled optimism about the euro zone economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1166 (61.8% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1200 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1060 (50 % fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0983(11 DMA).

GBP/USD: Sterling rose against a weaker dollar Friday as optimism about Brexit-talks boosted sterling. Brexit talks about a trade deal with the European Union have not gone well, with the clock ticking on a Brexit transition period that runs out at the end of the year.On Thursday, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnie, called on Britain to be more realistic if it wants to clinch a deal on leaving the single market. Boris Johnson announced on Thursday that the coronavirus lockdown will ease next week for most of Britain’s population as England introduced a testing and contact tracing system for COVID-19 patients. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2369 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2459 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2319 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2235 (11 DMA).

USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Friday  as traders’ focus shifted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s response to China’s passage of a national security law for Hong Kong. The greenback was on course for a weekly loss against major currencies as progress in lifting coronavirus lockdowns and stimulus plans in Europe weakened demand for safe havens, but the mood could quickly worsen if Sino-U.S. tensions increase. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9659 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9735 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9608 (Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9538  (50% fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen on Friday as investors awaited Washington’s response to China tightening control over the city of Hong Kong. China’s parliament on Thursday pressed ahead with national security legislation for the city, raising fears over the future of its freedoms and its function as a finance hub.U.S. President Donald Trump said he would hold a news conference on China later on Friday. Trepidation about a further deterioration in Sino-U.S. relations put investors on edge. Strong resistance can be seen at 107.90 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 108.38 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 106.61 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 105.91 (Lower BB).

Equities Recap

European shares pulled back on Friday as market participants turned their focus to Washington’s response to the Chinese parliament’s approval of a national security law for Hong Kong, but major indexes were on course to finish May with solid gains.

At (GMT 12:00),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading lower at 0.80 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.53 percent, France’s CAC was trading down by 0.07 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices rose on Friday, supported by lingering U.S.-China trade tensions, while market participants cautiously awaited Washington’s response to the Chinese parliament’s approval of a national security law for Hong Kong.

Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,727.18 an ounce by 1102 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,739.40.

Oil prices were dragged sharply lower on Friday by weak U.S. fuel demand, fears of a second wave of coronavirus cases in South Korea and a worsening in U.S.-China relations, but were still on track for a hefty monthly gain.

July Brent crude fell $1.16, or 3.3%, to $34.13 a barrel by 0927 GMT while the more active August contract fell $1.11, or 3.1%, to $34.92. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $1.28, or 3.8%, at $32.43.

Treasuries Recap

Italian government bonds stabilised on Friday after a new issuance and as investors waited for a European Commission rescue plan to take form, with yields across the euro zone mostly neutral.

Italian 10-year yields were flat at 1.43% close to 1.42%, an eight-week low. Italian bonds have benefited from the proposed EU recovery plans.

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