Market Roundup
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Jan) -0.2%, -0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
•UK GDP (MoM) (Jan) -0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Jan) 1.0%, 1.2% forecast, 1.5% previous
•UK Index of Services 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan) -1.5%, -0.7% forecast, -1.9% previous
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) -0.9%, -0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jan) -1.5%, -0.4% forecast, -1.4% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) -1.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.7% previous
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jan) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, -0.2% previous
• German CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.3%, 2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
• German HICP (MoM) (Feb) 0.5%, 0.6% forecast, -0.2% previous
• German HICP (YoY) (Feb) 2.6%, 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
• German WPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.6%, 0.2% forecast, 0.9% previous
• German WPI (YoY) (Feb) 1.6%, 0.2% forecast, 0.9% previous
• French CPI NSA (YoY) (Feb) 0.80%, 0.80% previous
• French CPI (YoY) (Feb) 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 1.7% previous
• French CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
• French HICP (MoM) (Feb) 0.1%, 0.0% forecast, -0.2% previous
• French HICP (YoY) (Feb) 0.9%, 0.9% forecast, 1.8% previous
• Inflation (YoY) (Feb) 0.70%, 1.60% previous
• Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.2%, 2.1% forecast, 2.4% previous
• Spanish CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
• UK NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Feb) 0.4%, 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jan) 2.0%forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Jan) 135.5K
•12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jan) 1.9%, -0.2% previous
•13:00 German Current Account Balance n.s.a (Jan) 24.0B previous
•14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar) 4.3% previous
•14:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar) 3.5% previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar) 64.3 forecast, 64.0 previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar) 63.1 forecast, 64.7 previous
•14:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Mar) 65.0 forecast, 65.7 previous
•17:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 486 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 592 previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rallied on Friday after news broke that German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz had struck an agreement with the Greens to significantly increase state borrowing, just days before a key parliamentary vote next week. Meanwhile, German borrowing costs climbed as investors interpreted the latest developments as a signal that the surge in spending in Europe's largest economy would lead to more bond issuance. Merz is pushing for the outgoing German parliament to approve a €500 billion fund aimed at infrastructure development, alongside major changes to borrowing rules, to boost economic growth and increase military spending in Europe's largest economy. The euro was last up 0.5% to $1.0903, Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0947 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound weakened on Friday following a surprise contraction in the UK economy in January. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dropped by 0.1%, primarily due to a significant decline in industrial output compared to December, as reported by the Office for National Statistics. This outcome is a setback for Finance Minister Reeves, whose main goal is to boost economic growth. Reeves is expected to release new economic and fiscal forecasts in her Spring Statement on March 26, as sluggish growth and rising borrowing costs put pressure on the fiscal margin set in October's budget. At GMT 09:46, the pair was trading down 0.33% at 1.2940, retreating from daily high 1.2974. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3003(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3059(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2876(March 11th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2822(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady against the U.S. dollar on Friday as investors weighed the uncertainties surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff proposals. In his latest tariff threat, Trump announced on Thursday that he would impose a 200% duty on European wine and spirits unless the EU lifts retaliatory surcharges on American whiskey and other products set to take effect next month. Next week, central bank meetings, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's, will be closely monitored as investors look for direction on interest rates amidst concerns over Trump's trade policies and their potential impact on U.S. economic growth and inflation. At GMT 12:05, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.47% to $0.6312.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6332(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6382(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6290(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6249(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened on Friday as yen weakened after union wage talks in Japan concluded. Japanese firms agreed to raise wages by more than 5% on average this year, on course for their most substantial pay hike in over three decades - a relief for many workers though it's unclear if the increases will lead to a meaningful jump in consumer spending.As annual labour negotiations wrapped up this week, many of Japan's biggest companies said they met union demands in full.Hefty pay hikes have been seen as essential to counter inflation-induced sharp increases in the cost of living. Many companies, emboldened by record profits on the back of a weak yen, are also keen to retain staff amid labour shortages. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.04(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.46(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.63(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 146.74(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Eurozone shares surged on Friday after news broke that German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz had struck a deal with the Greens to significantly increase state borrowing, just days before a crucial parliamentary vote next week.
At GMT (12:26) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 2.16 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.64percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.22 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold broke through the significant $3,000 per ounce mark on Friday for the first time, continuing its historic rally as trade tensions and expectations of U.S. rate cuts boosted its appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,997.75 an ounce at 1115 GMT after hitting a record high of $3,004.86.
Oil prices rebounded on Friday after losing over 1% in the previous session, driven partly by fading hopes for a swift resolution to the Ukraine war, which would restore Russian energy supplies to Western markets.
Brent crude futures were up 54 cents, or 0.77%, to $70.42 a barrel at 1055 GMT, after settling 1.5% lower in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $67.13 a barrel, up 58 cents, or 0.87%, after closing down 1.7% on Thursday.
