Market Roundup
•UK Feb Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.0% , 0.2% forecast, -0.4% previous
•German Mar CPI (MoM) 0.8%, 0.8% forecast,0.8% previous
•UK Feb Industrial Production (YoY) -3.1%,-3.7% forecast,-4.3% previous
• German Mar CPI (YoY) 7.4%, 7.4% forecast, 8.7% previous
•German Mar HICP (MoM) 1.1%,1.1% forecast,1.0% previous
•UK Feb Manufacturing Production (YoY) -2.4%, -4.7% forecast, -5.2% previous
•German Mar HICP (YoY) 7.8%,7.8% forecast,9.3% previous
•UK Feb Trade Balance Non-EU -6.52B, -7.40B forecast,-7.81B previous
•UK Feb Trade Balance -17.53B, -17.00B forecast,-17.86B previous
•UK Feb Industrial Production (MoM) -0.2%,0.2% forecast,-0.3% previous
•UK Feb Construction Output (MoM) 2.4%,0.9% forecast,-1.7% previous
•UK Feb Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 0.1%,0.0% forecast,0.0% previous
•UK Feb U.K. Construction Output (YoY)5.7%, 1.6% forecast,0.6% previous
•UK Feb GDP (MoM) 0.0%,0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•EU Feb Industrial Production (YoY) 2.0%, 1.5% forecast,0.9% previous
• EU Feb Industrial Production (MoM) 1.5%,1.0% forecast,0.7% previous
•UK NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.1%,0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•US Mar Core PPI (MoM) -0.1% ,0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
• US Mar PPI (MoM -0.5% ,0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
• US Mar PPI (YoY) 2.7%, 3.0% forecast,4.6% previous
• US Mar Core PPI (YoY) 3.4% ,3.4% forecast, 4.4% previous
• US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 3.6% , 3.1% forecast,4.4% previous
• US Mar PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 239K , 232K forecast, 228K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 240.00K ,253.17K forecast, 237.75K previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,810K ,1,814K forecast ,1,823K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 28B forecast , -23B previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.440% previous
•15:30 US8-Week Bill Auction 4.650% previous
•17:00 US 30-Year Bond Auction 3.877% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 15:00 IMF Meetings
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Thursday after data showed U.S. inflation slowed sharply in March, bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking campaign is either already finished or will be by May. Figures released on Wednesday showed U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation came it at 5% year-on-year in March, down from 6% in February. Core inflation which strips out volatile food and energy prices - picked up to 5.6%, from 5.5% the previous month. The dollar dropped after the data was released and weakened further on Thursday, helping the euro rise to a two-month high of $1.1032 just off the one-year peak of $1.1034 touched in early February. The euro was last up 0.2% at $1.101. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1036(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1100(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0935(5DMA ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0866(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose to its highest since last June on Thursday, as the dollar hovered at a two-month low after a slowdown in U.S. inflation, while data showed the UK economy essentially stagnated in February. Britain’s economy showed no growth in February as strikes by public workers hit output, but a bounce in January was stronger than first thought, meaning a recession is a bit less likely to be brewing in early 2023. The upward revision to January’s growth to 0.4% from 0.3% means Britain is likely to avoid the first-quarter contraction that the Bank of England predicted last month, but data due next week is seen as more important for monetary policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2511(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2547(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2442(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2390(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against Swiss Franc on Thursday as dollar was under pressure as softening U.S. inflation seemed to suggest the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle was nearing its end. The dollar dropped after the data was released and weakened further on Thursday. Minutes from the Fed's March meeting, also released on Wednesday, showed several officials considered pausing rate hikes after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. The Fed ended up hiking by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 4.75% to 5%. The dollar fell to a 26-month low against the Swiss franc at 0.8898. The franc is traditionally seen as a safe haven at times of stress. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8976(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8996(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8882 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8800(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the yen on Thursday after U.S. inflation data suggested the Federal Reserve may soon be finished raising interest rates, which in turn weighed on greenback. Tuesday's read on U.S. consumer inflation showed prices barely rose in March. The annual 5% headline rise for U.S. inflation was the smallest since May 2021 and down from 9.1% last June. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major peers, fell to 101.2, its lowest since the start of February. It was on track for its fifth straight weekly drop and last stood 0.15% lower at 101.33.Strong resistance can be seen at 133.52 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 133.90(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 132.60(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 132.15(21DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Thursday, supported by gains in luxury stocks after LVMH posted strong first-quarter sales and hopes of a pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle following cooler-than-expected inflation data.
At (GMT 12:46 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.24 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.13 percent, France’s CAC was up by 01.12 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices stayed strongly supported above $2,000 on Thursday boosted by bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve might pause or slow the pace of rate hikes and its predictions of mild recession this year.
Spot gold was up 0.6% to $2,026.26 per ounce by 1126 GMT, about $40 off record highs hit in 2020. U.S. gold futures gained 0.8% to $2,040.20.
Oil prices were stable on Thursday as the market weighed the prospect of tight supply against possible recession in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer.
Brent crude edged down 22 cents, or 0.25%, to $87.11 a barrel by 1152 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 20 cents, or 0.24%, to $83.06.
