Market Roundup
- Risk off start as Doha agreement found wanting: Oil choppy
- Brent plays 42.24 to 40.10 then back to 42.05
- Nikkei off 3.4%, DAX -0.13%, Gold +0.34%, DXY flat
- EUR/USD +0.22%, USD/JPY -0.4% GBP/USD -0.15%, EUR/NOK fat
- Saudi oil exports fall to 7.553 mln bpd in February -JODI - Rtrs News
- CFTC IMM CTA- Specs lash net USD longs to lowest since January ’09
- G20 worried by modest global growth, commodities weakness
- IMF members urge growth-friendly spending, new lending tools
- Policymakers fret as storm clouds gather over world economy
- Oil slides after Saudi opposition blocks talks on output freeze
- Japan’s pitch for FX action meets cool G20, US response
- Japan rules out FX devaluations but signals action vs abrupt JPY spike
- China Mar new hse px +4.9%y/y, Feb +3.6%, Beijing +16%, Shanghai +25%
- ECB’s Nowotny – No concessions to London in case of Brexit
- SNB Chair Jordan – Finance chiefs support Swiss negative rates
- 45% Brits want to stay, 38% want EU exit, 17% und- ComRes poll for Sun
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The Statistics Canada will release investment in foreign securities figures for the month of February.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) The National Association of Home Builders is likely to report that United States' Housing Market index rose to 59 from 58 in the month of April.
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) The Conference Board Australia releases its leading index for the month of February. The index posted a decline of 0.4 percent for the month of January.
Key Events Ahead
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley's speech.
- (1230 ET/1630 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks before the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce.
- (1900 ET/2300 GMT) Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren gives a lecture in New Britain, Connecticut.
FX Beat
USD: The dollar lost ground against the euro and yen, after major crude exporters failed to agree on an output freeze, sending investors towards safe-haven assest. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index stood at 94.617.
EUR/USD: The euro inched up 0.2 percent to 1.1306, hovering towards session high of 1.1313. The pair is facing resistance around 1.1320 level and any violation above this level will reach till 1.13766/1.1400/1.1460level. On the lower side minor intraday support is around 1.1270 and any violation below that level will drag it to next level 1.1230/1.1180 level. Further weakness can be seen below 1.1150. Break below 1.1150 will take the pair till 1.1050 level.
USD/JPY: The Japanese yen touched a high of 107.83 yen against the dollar. The greenback trades 0.47 percent lower at 108.24, pulling away from a high of 109.73, struck in the previous session. The short term trend is slightly bearish as long as resistance 110 holds. On the lower side any break below 107.60 will drag the pair down till 106.80/105. The major resistance is around 110 and break above targets 111.25/112, while the minor resistance is around 109.25
GBP/USD: Sterling declined, pulling away from a high of 1.4242 struck in the previous session as growing concerns over the prospect of Britain exiting the EU worsened global risk appetite. British finance minister George Osborne stated that a vote to quit the European Union in a referendum on June 23 would leave the economy 6 percent smaller by 2030 than if it stayed in the bloc. Sterling trades around 1.4183, having recovered from a low of 1.4131, touched earlier in the session. While the euro was up 0.6 percent at 79.855 , having hit a 22-month high of 81.17 late last week. Intraday trend is slightly weak as long as resistance 1.4250 holds. Any break above 1.4250 will take the pair up till 1.4320/1.4350. Overall bearish invalidation is only if it closes above 1.4400. On the lower side support is around 1.4090 and break below targets 1.4040/1.4000.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc gained against the U.S. dollar, having gone as high as 0.9645 earlier in the session. It trades 0.2 percent higher at 0.9649, hovering towards sessions high. The pair is consolidating in narrow range between 0.96880/0.9630 for the past three trading session. The short term trend is bullish as long as support 0.9630 holds. On the lower side break
below 0.9630 will drag the pair down till 0.9575/0.9525. The resistance is at 0.9700 and break above will take it to next level at 0.9750/0.9800. Overall bearish invalidation can happen only above 0.9800.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slumped after a meeting of oil exporters hoping to freeze oil output failed to agree on a plan to restrain global supply. The Aussie trades around 0.7708, recovering from a low of 0.7631. The short term trend is slightly bullish as long as support 0.7630 holds. On the higher side major resistance is around 0.7735 and break above targets 0.7750/0.7780. The major support is around 0.7630 and break below will drag the pair till 0.7570/0.7500, while the minor support is at 0.7650.
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar gained about 0.3 percent to trade at 0.6939, strengthened by local inflation data. The kiwi continues to trade higher, hovering towards session high of 0.6942. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6952 (Apr 13 high), while on the downside, support is seen at 0.6826 (20-DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares slumped following a decline in the oil prices after producers meeting in Qatar failed to agree on a plan to restrain global supply.
Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 nudged down 0.46 pct to 1,344.2 points, Britain's FTSE and France's CAC both lost 1.04 pct and 1.38 pct, respectively. Germany's DAX skidded 1.17 pct.
Tokyo's Nikkei slumped 3.40 pct at 16,275.95. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.9 percent lower, pulling away from a five-month intraday high touched on Friday.
Shanghai Composite index ended down 1.4 pct at 3,033.66 points, while CSI300 index closed down 1.3 pct at 3,228.45 points. HK’s Hang Seng index edged down 0.7 pct at 21,161.50 points.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices declined after a meeting by major exporters in Qatar ended without an agreement to freeze output. Brent crude futures dropped almost 7 percent in early trading before recovering to $41.59 per barrel at 1058 GMT, while U.S. crude futures slid as much as 6.8 percent to $37.61 a barrel.
Gold extended gains after oil producers failed to agree on an output freeze, sending crude prices and equities tumbling. Spot gold rose to a session high of $1,239.91 an ounce, before giving up some gains to trade up 0.3 percent at $1,237.50 by 1057 GMT.
Treasuries Recap
The U.S. 10-year treasuries yield stood at 1.7500 down by 0.002 bps.
Yields on lower-rated eurozone bonds rose as tumbling oil prices made investors more risk averse. German Bund yields dipped as oil prices plunged following a meeting by major exporters in Qatar. The 10-year Bund yields, the benchmark for euro zone borrowing costs, were down 1 basis point at 0.12 percent
Japanese government bond prices gained, with the 20-year yield hitting a record low, due by concerns about disruptions to the economy after deadly earthquakes in southern Japan and a stronger yen. The 20-year JGB yield hit a record low of 0.275 percent as investors snatched up long-dated bonds that still have positive yields. The 20-year yield last stood at 0.290 percent, down 0.5 basis point. The 10-year JGB yield fell 0.5 basis point to minus 0.120 percent, near record low of minus 0.135 percent.
Australian government bond futures rebounded, with the 3-year bond contract up 4 ticks at 98.080. The 10-year contract gained 6.5 ticks to 97.5100, while the 20-year contract added 6 ticks to 96.9300. New Zealand government bonds gained amid the general risk-off mood, sending yields 3 basis points lower along the curve.
