Market Roundup
- EUR/USD +0.2%, USD/JPY +0.25%, GBP/USD -0.4%, EUR/GBP +0.5%
- DAX, +0.03%, FTSE +0.1%, CAC -0.1%, Brent +1.0%, Gold -0.03%
- GBP pressured by possibility of Scottish vote, GBP/USD 12-day low
- Eurozone Jan M3 annual growth 4.9% vs previous 5.0%. 4.8% forecast
- Eurozone Feb Economic sentiment 108.0 vs previous 107.9. 108 forecast
- Eurozone Feb Industrial sentiment 1.3 vs previous 0.8. 1.2 forecast
- Eurozone Feb Business climate 0.82 vs previous 0.76 revised. 0.79 forecast
- Eurozone Feb Consumer confidence final -6.2 vs previous -4.8 revised. -6.2 forecast
- Eurozone Feb Consumer inflation expectations 14.5 vs previous 14.5
- SNB domestic deposits rise to CHF 470.161bln w/e Feb 24 from previous 467.99
- Swiss non-farm payrolls rise 0.3 pct in Q4
- LSE, Deutsche Boerse deal in jeopardy as EU set to block
- Buoyed centrist alliance, Macron seen beating Le Pen in French runoff
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. durable goods orders are expected to have increased 1.9 percent in January after declining 0.5 percent in December, while non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft are likely to have risen 0.5 percent after gaining 0.7 percent the prior month.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The National Association of Realtors is likely to report that U.S. pending home sales increased 1.0 percent in January after rising 1.6 percent in December.
- (1030 ET/1530 GMT) The Dallas Fed releases its Manufacturing Business Index for the month of February. The index rose to 22.1 in the previous month.
- (1645 ET/2145 GMT) The Statistics New Zealand releases its trade balance data for the month of January. The economy posted an annual trade deficit of $3.2 billion in December.
- (1950 ET/2350 GMT) Japan's preliminary Industrial Production is expected to have edged up 0.3 percent in March after increasing 0.7 percent in February.
- (1850 ET/2350 GMT) Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry releases retail trade data for the month of January. The indicator posted an annualized rise of 0.6 percent in the prior month.
Key Events Ahead
- (1100 ET/1600 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan participates in a moderated Q&A session before the University of Oklahoma Price College of Business Distinguished Speaker Series.
- (1145 ET/1645 GMT) FedTrade operation 30-yr Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac (max $2.425 bn)
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar attempted a minor recovery across the board following a rebound in the U.S. Treasury yields. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded flat at 101.10, having hit a low of 100.66 on Friday, it’s weakest since Feb. 17. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at -7.11 (Neutral) by 1100 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro rose, reversing most of its previous session losses as the greenback weakened ahead of this week's speech by U.S. President Donald Trump. The European currency traded 0.23 percent up at 1.0584, having hit a high of 1.0617 on Friday, it’s highest since Feb. 20. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at 47.04 (Neutral) by 1100 GMT. The pair has jumped slightly above 1.0600 after forming a bottom around 1.04938 on Feb 22nd. On the higher side, 1.06800 will be acting major resistance and any break above will take the pair till 1.0740/1.0800. The short term bearish invalidation is only above 1.08735.
USD/JPY: The dollar rose, halting its 3-day losing streak as a rebound in the U.S treasury yields across the curve strengthened market sentiment. However, the upside remained capped as investors remained disappointed with the lack of clarity on the U.S. President Donald Trump's promised fiscal stimulus measures. The pair trades 0.08 percent higher at 112.23, having hit low of 111.91 earlier in the session, its lowest since Feb. 9. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 124.04 (Highly Bullish) by 1100 GMT. The minor resistance is around 113.20 (55- day EMA) and any break above will take it till 113.80/114.30 (61.8% retracement of 118.61 and 111.59)/114.95 (Feb 15th high). On the lower side, minor support is around 112 and any break below 112 will drag it till 111.66.
GBP/USD: Sterling slumped to a near 2-week low against the dollar as increased speculation of another Scottish independence referendum and renewed fears about Britain's future as it prepares to leave the European Union weighed heavily on the British currency. The major trades 0.35 percent lower at 1.2410, having hit a low of 1.2391 earlier, its weakest since Feb. 17. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -111.74 (Highly Bearish) by 1100 GMT. On the lower side, major weakness can be seen only below 1.2380 (Feb 15th low) and any violation below will drag the pair down till 1.23450 (50% retracement of 1.19860 and 1.27060). The minor trend reversal can happen only above 1.2580 level and any break above will take it till 1.2705 (Feb 2nd high)/1.27750 (Dec 6th high). Against the euro, the pound trades 0.6 percent lower at 85.22 pence, having hit a 7-day low of 85.34.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc edged down, extending losses for the second consecutive session, as the dollar rose following a rebound in the U.S. Treasury yields. The major trades up at 1.0072, drifting away from a low of 1.0021 touched on Friday, its lowest since Feb. 21. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at 59.33 (Bullish) by 1100 GMT. Any break above 1.01600 confirms minor bullishness, a jump till 1.02480 is likely. On the lower side, major support is around 1.0010 (100 –day EMA) and any break below targets 0.9960 (Feb 17th low)/0.9927 (Feb 8th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar trimmed gains after rising higher on the back of upbeat Australian corporate profits data. The weakness came in as mild negative sentiment surrounding commodity and equity markets dented investor's confidence. The major trades 0.05 percent up at 0.7671, hovering towards a high of 0.7740 hit on Thursday, its highest since Nov. 10. FxWirePro's Hourly Aussie Strength Index stood at -111.25 (Highly Bearish) by 1100 GMT. On the lower side, the major support stands at 0.7640 (21- day EMA) and any break below will drag the pair down till 0.7557 (55- day EMA)/0.7485 (50- day MA)/0.74450 (Jan 13th low). The major resistance is around 0.77497 (161.8% fibo) and a break above will take it till 0.77783 (Nov 8th high)/0.7800.
Equities Recap
European shares eased after rising in early trade as political uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe triggered a fresh bout risk aversion across the financial markets.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index decreased 0.25 percent to 369.09 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index eased 0.19 percent to 1,455.86 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.23 percent higher at 7,259.75 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 added 0.16 percent to 18,618.12 points.
Germany's DAX edged up 0.08 percent at 11,812.63 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.12 percent lower at 4,839.84 points.
Tokyo's Nikkei eased 0.91 percent to 19,107.47 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.29 percent to 5,722.30 points and South Korea's KOSPI dropped 0.64 percent to 2,094.12 points.
Shanghai composite index declined 0.8 percent to 3,228.66 points, while CSI300 index lost 0.8 percent to 3,446.22 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 0.2 percent to 23,925.05 points.
Commodities Recap
Crude oil prices rose more than 1 percent as a global supply glut appears to ease, however, increasing U.S. production capped gains. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 1.1 percent up at $56.60 per barrel by 0940 GMT, having hit a peak of $57.23 last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.8 percent at $54.43 a barrel, after hovering towards a peak of $55.00, its highest since Jan. 3.
Gold prices eased after rising to a near 3-1/2-month peak touched on Friday as investors await more clarity on President Donald Trump's economic policy. Spot gold was trading 0.1 percent down at $1,254.74 per ounce at 0946 GMT, having hit its highest since Nov. 11 at $1,260.04 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were also steady at $1,257.70.
Treasuries Recap
The 10-year U.S treasury yield stood at 2.3294 percent higher by 0.012 bps, while 5-year yield was up by 0.024 bps at 1.8274 percent.
The French 10-year bond yields fell to a one-month low on Monday, as latest polls showed candidate Emmanuel Macron would beat the far-right's Marine Le Pen in May's presidential election runoff. France's 10-year bond yield fell 2.5 basis points to a one-month low of 0.90 percent. German bond yields edged higher, narrowing the gap between French peers to around 70 basis points, its tightest level in just over a week. Benchmark Spanish, Italian and Portuguese yields all fell between 3 and 5 basis points.
The Japanese government bond prices rose, with the 5-year yield hitting a three-month low. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield fell 1.0 basis point to 0.050 percent, its lowest level in about a month. The 20-year yield fell 2.5 basis points to a one-month low of 0.620 percent, while the 30-year dropped 3.5 basis points to 0.810 percent. The five-year yield fell to minus 0.145 percent, falling below its January trough to mark its lowest level since mid-November. The price of 10-year JGB futures rose 0.14 point to 140.54.
The Australian government bond futures rose, with the three-year bond contract up 1 tick at 98.020 and the 10-year contract added 3.5 ticks to 97.2750. The New Zealand government bonds gained, sending yields 1 basis points lower at the long end of the curve.
