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Fed Hike Aftermath Series: Dollar weakened as September rate hike probability dives

The dollar has taken a major beating this week after several US economic data surprised the market to the downside. First the ISM manufacturing PMI last Thursday showed that the sector has shrunk in August unexpectedly. However, hopes of a rate hike didn’t fade right away. Instead, the market was gearing up for a hike in September. Then on Friday, the non-farm payroll surprised to the downside big time, which weakened the dollar but it made a comeback still. However, the final and the biggest blow was delivered by ISM non-manufacturing PMI released yesterday that dropped sharply to just 51.4 compared to above 55 a month ago. A slowdown in August is evident.

But is it the late after effect of the UK referendum, or weakness in the U.S. economy that is here to persist, that we don’t know yet but these figures have posed considerable doubts over the possibility of a rate hike in September. The hike probability has dropped to just 22 percent from its recent peak of 42 percent.

Naturally, the dollar has been sliding and the rest of the currencies and commodities are benefiting from that. The euro is trading higher around 1.124, the yen is at 101.5 per dollar and gold is trading at $1350 per troy ounce.

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