Previous Week
US dollar was trading lower in the previous week despite hawkish rate cut by the Fed. The central bank cuts rates by 25 bps to 1.75% -2% as expected. Fed forecasts no further rate cuts in 2019 and 2020. US dollar index hits a low of 98.14 and is currently trading around 98.47.
Swiss franc performed well previous week after SNB kept its rates unchanged and lowered forecast of inflation and growth.
The precious metal showed a good recovery of more than $30 on an escalation of tension in the Middle East. Minor bullishness can be seen if it breaks above $1525 and is currently trading around $1514.73.
The Brent crude oil prices lost more than 8% after Saudi partially restored output after the attack but still trading $5 above pre-attack levels.
US 10 year bond yield declined more than 8% after a good recovery of more than 30% after hitting a 3-year low of 1.44%. It is currently trading at 1.723%. The yield curve inversion between US 10 year and 2-year has gone and spread narrowed to 2.6 bps from 7.5 bps.
Weekly Technical:
EURUSD:
Major trend reversal level- 1.1125
Near term support- 1.100/1.0920
Near term resistance – 1.1125/1.11750
USDJPY:
Major trend reversal level- 108.50
Near term support- 107.40/106.60
Near term resistance – 108.50/109.30
USDCHF
Major trend reversal level- 0.9980
Near term support- 0.9850/0.9770
Near term resistance – 0.9980/1.0030
USDCAD
Major trend reversal level- 1.3380
Near term support- 1.3300/1.3380
Near term resistance – 1.3180/1.3135
Gold
Major trend reversal level- $1480
Near term support- $1480/$1460
Near term resistance – $1525/$1555
WTI Crude
Major trend reversal level- $63.50
Near term support- $57.50/$56.08
Near term resistance – $60.50/$63.50
Major Economic events for the week
Germany flash manufacturing and services PMI - Monday (7:15 AM GMT)
US CB Consumer confidence - Tuesday (2:00 PM GMT)
US Final GDP -Thursday (12:30 PM GMT)
US Durable goods order m/m- Friday (12:30 PM GMT)
US Personal spending m/m - Friday (12:30 PM IST)
