Gold is consolidating after hitting 5- week low of $1281.The jump in US dollar index and rising US bond yield is putting pressure on yellow metal. Gold was one the best performer in Jan and has jumped more than $50 on account of dovish Fed and global uncertainty.
The major three factors that drive gold prices
US dollar Index: Bullish. DXY trades flat after hitting high of 97.01.The index has recovered sharply from bottom of 95.82.It is facing strong resistance 97.09 and any break above confirms further bullishness and a jump till 97.37 possible. (negative for for gold).
USD/JPY: strong. USD/JPY is consolidating after hitting high of 112.13.It is currently trading around 111.71. The near term resistance is around 112.20 and any break above targets 112.60/113. negative for gold.
US 10 year yield : US 10 year yield is trading lower for 3rd consecutive day and has declined more than 3% from high of 2.77%.The near term resistance is around 2.792% (300- day EMA).The yield has been trading weak for past two months and lost nearly 22% from high of 3.25%.It is currently trading around 2.711%.slightly positive for Gold.
US 2 year yield: It is trading around 2.522%. The spread between US 10 year and 2 year has declined to 17bpbs from 30 basis point. The spread between 5 year and 2- year yield has inverted (US 2 year yield trading above US 5 year yield).
Gold technical
On the higher side, yellow metal is facing near term resistance around $1290 and break above will take the gold to next level till $1300/$1311.70 (10- day MA)/$1316.The yellow metal should break above $1365 for further bullishness.
The near term support is around $1280 and any violation below will drag the commodity down till $1271/$1265.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1288-90 with SL around $1300 for the TP of $1265.
