Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1909.40
Kijun-Sen- $1963.90
Gold was the worst performer the previous week on surging US treasury yield. It hit a low of $1842.95 and is currently trading at around $1844.21.
US annual PCE inflation advanced 3.9% in August, in line with estimates. Every month, Personal consumption expenditure rose 0.1%, below the estimate of 0.20%.
US real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.1% in Q2 as expected. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits rose to 204K in the week ended September 23rd, 2023, compared to a forecast of 215000. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment dropped to 68.1 in Sep, from 69.5 in Aug.
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 104.40/103.79. The near-term resistance is 107/108.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in Nov increased to 30.9% from 18.3% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback of 2.5% on upbeat US economic data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -46.6% from -75%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bearish (positive for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1840, a break below targets of $1830/$1800. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1860 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1885/$1900/$1920.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1862-63 with SL around $1880 for TP of $1800.
