As begin with 2016 wage and inflation come into focus, so will the next major wage round scheduled next year.

Agreements covering around 3 million employees (63% of labor force) in the private and public sector will expire.

Unless the Riksbank manages to engineer, a material rise in headline inflation, (current consensus forecast is just 1.0% in early 2016), the risk is that wage negations are benchmarked to very low inflation expectations and employees lock in very weak wage growth for three years.

This in turn will put downward pressure on future inflation, making the task of battling low inflation even harder for the Riksbank.

Assuming core inflation continues its trend acceleration, we see EUR/SEK drifting lower in the latter half of the next year once higher prices become more entrenched and the Riksbank can start to gradually raise interest rates.

Financial imbalances in Sweden are continuing to grow and the stance of monetary policy is dangerously loose on many criteria.

However, we largely rule out a return to the March high against the euro of 9.0547 given recent policy actions.

Stay positioned EUR/SEK with bear call spread:

We maintain our medium-term bullish view on the SEK forecasting a gradual move lower in EUR/SEK towards 9.30 in next 3-4 months.

Beyond Q1, however, the outlook for SEK is much more constructive. The central bank's sensitivity to the transitory impact of import prices on headline inflation should diminish once the wage negotiations are settled.

From a longer-term perspective, the outright level of valuation of SEK is not an issue. In real trade weighted terms, SEK is as cheap as it has been at any time in recent history and Swedish exporters should have no problem living with a gently appreciating currency.

So, go long on 2M (1%) OTM delta call and simultaneously short 2W (0.5%) ITM call with net credit to enter the positions.

The maximum gain achievable deploying these positions is the credit received upon entering the trade.

To reach the maximum profit, the EURSEK needs to close at or below the strike price of the lower striking call sold at maturity where both options would expire worthless.