Menu

Search

  |   Technicals

Menu

  |   Technicals

Search

FxWirePro: More potential yields on AUD/NZD option strips

Technical glance:

Our previous target is very well achieved at 1.0747, for now we could still foresee the pair to drag downwards up to 1.0555 levels. On monthly charts, the prevailing prices of this APAC pair falls well below 10DMA that signifies the long term downtrend to prolong, while leading oscillators shows downward convergence to the price dips.

Before proceeding check the magic: http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-Never-buck-the-trend-as-momentum-and-lagging-indicators-signal-AUD-NZD-to-extend-loses-102506

The risk reversal quotation sigma25 -RR is the difference between two volatilities:

The implied volatility of an ATM call with a delta of 0.5 is 10.11% and

The implied volatility of ATM put with a delta of -0.49 is 10.11%.

It measures the skewness of the smile, the extra volatility which is added to the 0.5 delta put volatility compared to a call volatility which has the same absolute delta.

Currency Option Strategy:

The options strips were deployed anticipating more downside potential, now have a look at the diagram fro prevailing prices of ATM puts and they are moving in line with healthy delta. We've been firm to hold on this strategy on hedging grounds. The potential target on upside is about 50-100 pips where 100-130 pips on downside.

The rationale is that any potential downswings should be optimally utilized, so to participate in that downtrend, weights in the portfolio should be doubled with ATM puts.

What makes ATM instrument more productive in our strategy: the delta of this instrument is here at its fastest rate and gets faster as your position come closer to the expiration date. As a result, time decay may have a relevant impact on ATM options.

Hold 15D At-The-Money 0.50 delta call and simultaneously hold 2 lot of 1M At-The-Money -0.50 delta put options. Huge profits achievable with the strip strategy when AUDNZD exchange rate makes a strong move either upwards or downwards at expiration, with greater gains to be made with a downward move.

Please be informed that the trader can still make money even if his anticipation goes wrong - but the underlying pair has to move in the opposite direction really fast. The 1 call bought has to beat the cost of buying all the options and still bring in some profits.

  • Market Data
Close

Welcome to EconoTimes

Sign up for daily updates for the most important
stories unfolding in the global economy.