FxWirePro: NZD/USD hits new 4-week high, broad-based US dollar weakness and upbeat China trade data support gains

NZD/USD chart - Trading View 

Fundamental Overview:

NZD/USD has resumed upside after 2 straight sessions of range trade, broad-based US dollar weakness and upbeat upbeat China trade data support gains.

Data released earlier today showed China’s Trade Balance (CNY) returned to surplus in March, imports were up while exports dropped.

China’s March month Trade Balance rose to 130B from -42.59B prior, in Chinese Yuan terms whereas Exports rose from -15.9% to -3.5% with Imports reversing the previous -2.4% loss with +2.4%.

Latest risk-reset, as evidenced from rising Asian stocks and the US 10-year Treasury yields also keep the antipodeans buoyed.

Technical Analysis:

The major was trading 0.57% higher on the day at 0.6122 at around 02:30 GMT, extending gains above the 0.61 handle.

Momentum studies are bullish, Stochs and RSI are sharply higher. However, oversold oscillators pose risks of pullback.

GMMA shows major trend is neutral, while minor trend is bullish. Volatility is rising as evidenced by widening Bollinger bands.

Scope for test of 55-EMA at 0.6150. Decisive breakout above 55-EMA resistance will see gains till 61.8% Fib at 0.6264.

'Death Cross', overbought oscillators and neutral trend (major) as shown by GMMA indicator may limit gains in the pair.

Support levels - 0.6077 (5-DMA), 0.6019 (21-EMA), 0.5960 (38.2% Fib)

Resistance levels - 0.6150 (55-EMA), 0.62, 0.6264 (61.8% Fib)

Summary: Current bullishness could see test of 55-EMA. Further gains only on decisive breakout at 55-EMA resistance. Trade with tight stops recommended.