Obamacare Premiums Set to Double in 2026 as Subsidy Expiration Looms Amid U.S. Shutdown

Americans preparing to enroll in 2026 Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance plans are facing steep premium hikes, with monthly costs expected to more than double on average. The sharp rise stems from the expiration of COVID-19 pandemic-era subsidies that have been central to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. These subsidies, which boosted enrollment to a record 24 million since 2021, are set to expire at the end of the year, potentially increasing the number of uninsured Americans and influencing election outcomes.

According to health research firm KFF, ACA enrollees will see average premiums rise by 114%. While 22 million people currently receive subsidies, the impact will vary widely. For example, 24-year-old Californian Austin Jeha’s monthly premium is expected to jump from $215 to $436. Like many, he relies on his ACA plan for essential medical care and is urging Congress to extend the subsidies.

The budget impasse in Washington has left much of the government shuttered since October 1. Democrats are pushing to include ACA funding in any reopening deal, while Republicans insist on restoring government funding first. Residents of Republican-led states such as Florida, Texas, and Georgia are expected to be hit hardest, as limited Medicaid coverage forces many low-income workers to depend on ACA plans.

If subsidies expire, households earning just above 400% of the federal poverty line—around $84,600 for a couple—could see their premiums quadruple. Experts warn enrollment will decline even if subsidies are later reinstated, as consumers may abandon plans after seeing higher rates. The Congressional Budget Office estimates over 4 million Americans could lose coverage without renewed tax credits. Rising healthcare costs and insurer exits, such as CVS Health’s Aetna leaving the ACA market, have already driven a 26% increase in premiums. For many families, healthcare remains essential but increasingly unaffordable.