RBA Expected to Raise Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in February, ANZ Forecast Says 
South Africa Eyes ECB Repo Lines as Inflation Eases and Rate Cuts Loom 
BOJ Holds Interest Rates Steady, Upgrades Growth and Inflation Outlook for Japan 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
ECB’s Cipollone Backs Digital Euro as Europe Pushes for Payment System Independence 
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as India’s Growth Outlook Strengthens After U.S. Trade Deal 
After yesterday’s FOMC minutes gave clearest indication ever for a June rate hike, interest rates market have adjusted sharply in anticipation of such.
As per the minutes, many participants believed a riser would be appropriate at June meeting if the economic data and job market conditions continue to improve as inflation heads towards 2% target in the medium term.
- Market is now attaching 70% probability that there won’t be a hike in June, compared to 81% before the minutes.
- Market is attaching 51% probability that there will be a hike in July, compared to 62% before, predicting no hike.
- Before minutes market was pricing 55% chance of a hike in September, now pricing 63% odds of such.
- Market is attaching 66% hike probability in November compared to 58% before and 79% probability for December, up from 72% before.
Dollar index is currently trading at 95.22, down -3.45% YTD.
