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Rising speculation of rate cut by RBNZ keeps Kiwi subdued

The RBNZ held rates and policy last week giving the kiwi a big jump as it remains near the top of its trading range. This week, the bird is likely in for a volatile ride, as markets brace for a slew of local data and major central bank events. The Kiwi may trade between 68.80 US cents and 72 cents this week. Continued uncertainty around Britain's referendum next week on European Union membership is keeping markets wary.

The New Zealand dollar came under pressure against a backdrop of rising RBNZ rate cut speculation. The currency fell alongside front-end bond yields as the priced-in probability of a 25 basis points reduction in the baseline cash rate jumped to 60 percent from just 24 percent two sessions ago. New Zealand government bonds gained, sending yields one basis point lower at the short end of the curve and two basis points lower at the long end.

NZD/USD is extending downside from RBNZ led highs of 0.7147. Upside in the pair is likely running out of momentum, good to sell rallies, target 0.6950 and then 0.69 levels.

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