Strain in trade relations with Russia likely to hit Turkey

There will be a decline in the trade relations between Turkey and Russia, which will mostly hit the Turkish economy. Trade related income of Turkey from Russia is c. 2% of the country's GDP, amounting to USD 15-16 bn, which includes goods and services exports.

"In our view, tourism would likely take the biggest hit as trade of goods between the two countries is unlikely to completely disappear and exporters could find alternative markets; while it is easier for Russian tourists to switch destination", says Barclays in a research note. 

Russians would be emotionally refusing to visit Turkey, hitting its tourism and also the energy links between two countries are significant.

Russia, however is not expected to cut natural gas supply to Turkey, there might be a cut in the Gazprom, likely around 10%.