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US Election Series: Markets will love Clinton’s victory

One statement that any experienced financial market professional would agree with is that the market hates uncertainty. No matter how good the Trump presidency means for the American people, trade policies and military, in the near term, it means uncertainties. Let’s take the example of trade; Donald Trump has vowed that he would rip off every trade deal that doesn’t put “America first”. It is easier said than done unless Mr. Trump wants to return the United States under basic WTO rules. While it may prove easy for smaller economies, for larger economies like China, more important the European Union, it would be a behemoth task. If Mr. Trump remains insistent over the trade deals, it could spark a global trade war, which means more uncertainties. It is important to note that Mr. Trump can impose tariffs on the first day of his presidency if he chooses so and without congress.

In addition to that, a Trump Presidency would also impose uncertainties over monetary policies. No matter how independent the Fed remains, it is important to remember that the President has the power to choose the candidates for next chairman of the Federal Reserve.

On the other hand, electing Hillary Clinton would basically mean status quo, no change, which the financial markets love.

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