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Who will suffer from Renminbi depreciation?

We, at FxWirePro, have been arguing significant depreciation in Renminbi, while could be good for China's slowing economy, it may not bear well for global economic growth. China has a ready export oriented economy, so will not face regular J curve lag in exports. Exports could get boosted immediately, which in turn would mean slower economic recovery for other emerging market economies as there exports to face tougher competition and trade balance can deteriorate too.

Now, research by Oxford Economic support similar ideas.

According to their research on 10% depreciation in Renminbi in 2016, likely to be beneficial only to China, while rest of the world will be in peril.

Biggest adverse impact will be faced by Asian economies, with South Korea leading the way. Korean economy could shrink as much as -0.8% in such a case. Economies of Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Mexico would be most hard hit.

Impact on UK, Turkey, US, Brazil, Russia and India would be negative but less severe.

As of now, focus of 2016 is clearly China and its weakness.

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