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Will Bank of England announce its move next week?

Bank of England meets on July 14 to decide policy measures and investors are debating over whether the central bank will ease policy or wait until August Quarterly Inflation Report, when new post-Brexit forecasts will be ready. 

Bank of England was very clear in its assessment of the economic and monetary consequences as a result of Brexit and was largely prepared to tackle the situation. After signaling a willingness to cut interest rates and offering funds to banks, BoE governor Mark Carney last week pledged to take any further action needed to support financial stability as he warned of high uncertainty and a deteriorating economic outlook.

The BOE's Finance Policy Committee met last week.  A decision might have been made to reverse its March decision to raise the counter-cyclical increase in the capital buffer of UK exposure of banks to 50 basis points (of risk-weighted assets) from zero.  This could be announced as part of the Financial Stability Report slated for release on July 5.  Also, the BOE is going to make its liquidity injections more frequent, moving from monthly to weekly operations.

Data released earlier on Monday showed UK's construction PMI contracted in June. A majority of June’s survey responses were received ahead of the EU referendum and this increases the possibility of further deterioration in activity going ahead.  Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit notes that latest figures raise the likelihood that the Bank of England will inject additional stimulus this summer.

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