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5s30s flattening remain on track

BofA Merrill Lynch notes .... We remain positive on the US 5s30s flattener. Downside targets are seen to 88.8bps, while steepening should not exceed last Wednesday's high of 113.0bps. Below the Feb-09 low at 101.2bps con…

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BofA Merrill Lynch notes ....

  • We remain positive on the US 5s30s flattener. Downside targets are seen to 88.8bps, while steepening should not exceed last Wednesday's high of 113.0bps. 

  • Below the Feb-09 low at 101.2bps confirms a resumption of the larger flattening trend. Turning to the S&P500, while we remain bullish ESM5, targeting 2109/2136 resistance, and have no interest in fighting the tape, we are concerned about near term seasonality and the VXV/VIX ratio.
  • At this stage seasonality and the VXV/VIX ratio are only concerns. Indeed, trouble doesn't start until we see a break of 2074.00, while a break of 2052.25 is needed to invalidate the small head-and-shoulders base that is currently driving the market higher. Bears don't gain control until we break 2029.

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