Germany could avoid about €66 billion in distribution-grid expansion costs through 2045 if planners and operators pair network upgrades with more flexible use of existing infrastructure, Agora Energiewende said.
Consentec and Forschungsstelle für Energiewirtschaft (FfE) carried out the modeling for Agora. It covers representative low-, medium- and high-voltage networks across Germany. If planning and construction of Germany’s electricity distribution grid continue as they do now, the model estimates expansion spending at roughly €250 billion through 2045.
Agora’s savings case combines changes to planning with updated grid operations. It includes making fuller use of existing lines, placing storage near renewable generation and drawing on flexible electricity demand from electric vehicles, heat pumps and batteries. Local price signals and targeted controls could help manage periods of high demand.
Agora projects annual savings of at least €2 billion from 2030, increasing to €5 billion from 2035. The study expects electricity use by vehicles, heating and industry to add to grid expansion needs from the mid-2030s. Agora says current planning does not sufficiently account for flexible demand and other measures that could affect how much new equipment is needed.
Consumers bear grid costs through network charges. Agora says limited use of flexibility can lead operators to build more lines, transformers and substations than necessary, adding to those charges. It argues that regulations should let operators plan around flexible alternatives and give them incentives to use grid capacity more efficiently.
Julia Bläsius, director of Agora Energiewende Deutschland, argued that delaying the energy transition would leave Germany’s underlying grid-capacity needs unresolved. Agora’s Oct. 30 press release said distribution-grid operators were expected to submit expansion plans in early November.
