Market Roundup
• Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.3%, 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous
• Australia Weighted mean CPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.5%, 3.6% previous
• Australia Weighted mean CPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.70%, 3.80% forecast, 3.80% previous
• Australia CPI Index Number (Feb) 101.31, 101.33 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 07:00 UK PPI Output (Feb): 2.6% forecast, 2.5% previous
• 07:00 UK CPI (YoY) (Feb): 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous
• 07:00 UK PPI Input (MoM) (Feb): 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
• 07:00 UK CPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.4% forecast, -0.5% previous
• 07:00 UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Feb): 2.9% previous
• 07:00 UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Feb): 0.2% previous
• 07:00 UK PPI Output (YoY) (Feb): 2.6% forecast, 2.5% previous
• 07:00 UK PPI Output (MoM) (Feb): 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
• 07:00 UK PPI Input (YoY) (Feb): 0.4% forecast, -0.2% previous
• 07:00 UK RPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.5% forecast, -0.5% previous
• 07:00 UK RPI (YoY) (Feb): 3.7% forecast, 3.8% previous
• 07:00 UK Core RPI (MoM) (Feb): -0.5% previous
• 07:00 UK CPI, n.s.a (Feb): 139.50 previous
• 07:00 UK Core CPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.5% forecast, -0.6% previous
• 07:00 UK Core RPI (YoY) (Feb): 3.7% previous
• 07:00 UK Core CPI (YoY) (Feb): 3.1% forecast, 3.1% previous
•09:00 German Business Expectations (Mar): 86.0 forecast, 90.5 previous
•09:00 German Current Assessment (Mar): 86.0 forecast, 86.7 previous
•09:00 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Mar): 86.2 forecast, 88.6 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 09:15 ECB's Lane Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against dollar on Wednesday as traders cautious over U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to bring an end to the war with Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. was making progress in negotiating an end to the war, including winning an important concession from Tehran.Tehran has denied that direct talks have taken place and on Wednesday the official IRNA news agency quoted an armed forces spokesperson as saying the U.S. is "negotiating with itself".Lack of clarity over whether or when oil exports out of the Persian Gulf can resume, as well as signs there's already economic harm being done by spiking oil prices, have tempered markets' reaction so far to Trump's conciliatory moves. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1615(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1653 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1541(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1487(March 23rd low).
GBP/USD:The British pound weakened against the dollar on Wednesday as dollar firmed after report said that the U.S. is pushing for a month-long ceasefire in its conflict with Iran and has presented a 15-point proposal for negotiations. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that progress was being made toward ending the war, including securing a key concession from Tehran. A source told Reuters that Washington had shared the settlement plan, while Channel 12 reported the ceasefire push to allow discussions on the proposal. Meanwhile, the UK Office for National Statistics is set to release February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 07:00 GMT. The data comes as the Bank of England maintains a hawkish stance, having signaled last week that a rate hike could come as early as April due to inflation risks linked to the Iran conflict.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3458(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3547(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3380(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3295(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Wednesday as the ongoing Middle East war dampened risk sentiment, even as easing hopes lingered. U.S. President Donald Trump delayed the bombing of Iran's power grid, a move that allayed fear of a prolonged war in the Middle East. A survey showed Australia's consumer confidence slid to its lowest level in more than half a century last week as rising borrowing costs and a spike in petrol prices darkened the economic outlook. Markets now believe a rate hike in May from the Reserve Bank of Australia is a toss-up after two consecutive rises this year. About 65 bps of tightening is priced in for the rest of 2026.Focus shifts to Wednesday’s Australia inflation report for guidance on monetary policy as geopolitical tensions persist. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7012(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7064(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6940(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6893(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The US dollar edged higher on Wednesday as Japanese yen weakened as Japan's soft National CPI print tempers BoJ rate hike bets.Japan’s core inflation fell below the 2% target in February for the first time in nearly four years, as fuel subsidies offset higher import costs from a weak yen and rising oil prices. Core-core inflation, which strips out fresh food and fuel and is closely watched by the BOJ, rose 2.5% in February, easing slightly from 2.6% in January. Headline inflation eased to 1.3% in February from 1.5% in January, driven mainly by a 9.1% drop in energy costs as electricity and gas subsidies resumed.The BOJ ended its decade-long stimulus in 2024 and raised rates in stages, including in December, as it saw steady progress toward sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target.Kazuo Ueda has signaled the BOJ is ready to keep raising rates if it gains confidence that underlying, demand-driven inflation will stabilise around the 2% target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.87(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.01(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.08 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rallied on Wednesday on reports the U.S. is pursuing a ceasefire with Iran and has sent a 15-point plan, boosting hopes of a breakthrough and a recovery in Gulf oil exports.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 2.90% , South Korea’s KOSPI was up at 1.55 %, China A50 was up at 1.07 %
Commodities Recap
Gold rose over 2% on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar and easing inflation concerns after oil prices fell, amid reports of a U.S. plan to end the Middle East war.
Spot gold rose 2.2% to $4,570.74 per ounce by 0450 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery gained 3.8% to $4,569.10.
Oil prices fell about 4% on Wednesday on hopes a potential ceasefire could ease Middle East supply disruptions, after reports the U.S. sent Iran a 15-point peace plan.
Brent crude futures fell $4.89, or 4.7%, to $99.60 a barrel by 0335 GMT, after declining to as low as $97.57. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $3.54, or 3.8%, at $88.81 a barrel, after falling to as low as $86.72.
