Market Roundup
Japan Current Account n.s.a. (Jun) -0.092T, 1.512T forecast, 3.968T previous
Japan Adjusted Current Account (Jun) 1.40T, 2.50T forecast, 3.06T previous
Japan Bank Lending (YoY) (Jul) 5.4%, 5.7% forecast, 5.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Aug) -0.7 forecast, -3.1 previous
•Greece Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun) 3.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro eased on Monday as U.S. dollar inched higher ahead of this week's inflation data for more clueson the Federal Reserve's rate path.Data on Friday showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly shed jobs in July while job gains for the prior two months were revised sharply lower, cooling expectations for a Fed rate hike next month.That adds extra weight to this week's CPI report, along with retail sales data, as investors look for clues on the path of Fed policy.A consensus estimate calls for the core CPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month in July, lifting the annual rate to 2.5% and extending a gradual moderation in inflation. The annual rate was 2.6% in June.Producer price data on Thursday and retail sales figures on Friday will further inform the outlook for inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1565(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1600(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1517(Aug 8th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1472(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD : The British pound dipped against the U.S. dollar on Monday as markets looked to U.S. inflation data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month in July, lifting the annual rate to 2.5% and extending a gradual moderation in inflation. The annual rate was 2.6% in June. UK Q2 GDP figures are due on Thursday, with economists expecting growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.1% year-on-year. On the Geopolitical front, Iran said on Sunday a deal on new shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz is nearly finalized, but reiterated the key energy route will reopen only once the U.S. meets other conditions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3528(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3556(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3440(Aug 7th low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3407(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision.Markets broadly expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, with investors focused on signals about the future policy path.The RBA has raised interest rates three times this year, fully reversing the monetary policy easing delivered in 2025.Economic growth has slowed, inflation has undershot expectations, and the housing market has weakened more than the central bank had anticipated.Markets will focus on Australia’s Q2 Wage Price Index on Wednesday, followed later by the U.S. July inflation report, which could provide fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7076(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7104(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7006 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6975(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed on Monday as renewed tensions in the Middle East supported demand for the safe-haven dollar.Geopolitical risks increased after Yemen’s Houthis reportedly attacked a Saudi refinery and the Red Sea port city of Mocha, raising concerns over potential disruptions to regional energy supplies. U.S. crude prices climbed around 1%, providing additional support to the dollar and helping USD/JPY gradually advance to 158.30.Despite the yen’s recent rebound, Japan’s fiscal concerns and expectations for only gradual monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan continue to limit sustained JPY gains.At the same time, Japan’s recent currency intervention appears to have been aimed primarily at slowing the yen’s decline rather than forcing a sustained appreciation in the currency. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.82 (Aug 10th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.49(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.50(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 157.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks followed Wall Street higher on Monday after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report reduced expectations for a near-term increase in borrowing costs.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 2.22% , KOSPI was up at 0.65%, China A50 was up at 0.03 %
Commodities Recap
Gold held steady on Monday after reaching a seven-week high in the previous session, as investors awaited the U.S. inflation report for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s future interest-rate path.
Spot gold was little changed at $4,346.85 per ounce, as of 0637 GMT. Prices hit their highest since June 17 on Friday after weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls data.U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $4,406.80 on Monday.
Oil prices were little changed on Monday after giving up earlier gains, as optimism over a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was tempered by Iran’s insistence that the United States meet several demands before the key waterway can be reopened.
Brent crude futures stood at $83.54 a barrel, off 1 cent, by 0643 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 15 cents, or 0.2% to $78.03 a barrel.
