Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 4.7% in September as Treasurer Jim Chalmers prepared to warn of weaker growth and a softer jobs market.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) counted 732,000 unemployed people in September, 8,900 more than in August. The rate is seasonally adjusted. In its August outlook, the RBA forecast unemployment would average 4.5% in the December 2026 quarter and 4.7% in the December 2027 quarter.
The Guardian and Reuters reported excerpts from Chalmers’ prepared remarks for the Citi A50 Australian Economic Forum in Sydney on Friday, Oct. 23. The accounts say the Australian Treasury is revising forecasts for its December midyear budget update, but provide no new estimates for economic growth or unemployment. The Treasury had not posted a transcript by Thursday, leaving Chalmers’ outlook based on reported excerpts.
Reuters separately reported that the remarks said business investment could grow by more than 5% in 2026, more than double the expectation from May.
Official data show Australia’s gross domestic product grew 0.4% in the June quarter and 2.1% in the year to June. Consumer prices rose 4.0% in the 12 months to August, while trimmed-mean inflation was 3.6%.
The RBA raised its cash-rate target four times in 2026. Its latest increase was 25 basis points, taking the target to 4.60% effective Sept. 30. The bank has pointed to price pressure from domestic capacity constraints, energy costs linked to conflict in the Middle East and demand for technology goods related to artificial intelligence.
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said Oct. 21 that below-trend growth was needed to bring inflation down and that the slowdown was underway. He said policymakers must weigh the effect of tighter policy on activity and employment against the need to reduce inflation pressure.
The ABS is scheduled to release September consumer price data on Oct. 28. The RBA’s next rate decision is due Nov. 3, followed by the ABS labor-force report for October on Nov. 19.
