The Australian dollar moved sideways near its 100-day average against the U.S. dollar Tuesday as traders awaited September inflation data in Australia and a New Zealand cash rate update due Wednesday.
FXStreet reported that Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and colleagues saw AUD/USD rebound from near 0.6900, where a rising trend line dating to March had held, before leveling near its 100-day average at 0.7033. The FXStreet summary put near-term support at 0.6950 and the next resistance area at 0.7050–0.7080.
StoneX offered a separate technical reading, saying the pair paused near its 100-day average after bouncing from two unsuccessful tests of 0.6900. It put the 200-day average at 0.7055 and the 50-day average at 0.7080, which it also described as horizontal resistance. EconoTimes earlier covered the Australian dollar above 70 U.S. cents before September CPI.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has scheduled September’s consumer price index release for 8:30 p.m. ET Tuesday (00:30 UTC Wednesday), equivalent to 11:30 a.m. Canberra time Wednesday. The release will include monthly and September-quarter figures. The latest available data showed prices up 4.0% in the year through August, compared with 3.5% in the year through July. Trimmed-mean inflation was 3.6% over the year to August.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has its next official cash rate update scheduled for Oct. 28 and lists the rate at 2.75%. The bank says changes to its policy rate can pass through to mortgage, loan and savings rates, bringing the decision into household borrowing and savings costs.
StoneX's reading of swaps pointed to roughly 22 basis points of RBNZ tightening being priced in, with a 25-basis-point move broadly anticipated. Separately, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s (NZIER) Monetary Policy Shadow Board had a majority favoring a 25-basis-point increase. Some members said earlier increases should be given more time to work through the economy. These are market and advisory views; the RBNZ’s update is still pending.
StoneX and NZIER linked inflation concerns to elevated global energy prices and a weaker New Zealand dollar. StoneX’s review of hourly trading data found a median first-hour AUD/USD range of 0.48% after Australian inflation releases, especially quarterly reports. Following RBNZ decisions, its median ranges were 0.58% for NZD/USD and 0.47% for AUD/NZD. The two scheduled updates are due Oct. 28.
