A Bank for International Settlements study using weekly U.S. data estimates that higher non-maturity deposit rates were associated with slower stablecoin market-value growth, with the size of the relationship varying by model.
In BIS Working Paper 1382, the baseline ordinary least squares (OLS) estimate was 2.8 percentage points less cumulative stablecoin market-value growth over 10 weeks for a one-basis-point increase in the average U.S. rate on non-maturity deposits. An instrumental-variable (IV) estimate put the response at 9.1 percentage points for the same rate change and period. One basis point equals 0.01 percentage point.
The figures are model estimates, not observed transfers between bank accounts and stablecoins. The paper’s data cover weekly U.S. observations from January 2019 through June 2025. It describes stablecoins as generally paying holders little or no direct interest.
Rashad Ahmed, a research economist at the Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics, co-wrote the paper with Iñaki Aldasoro, a principal economist at the BIS. The analysis measures market-wide stablecoin growth; it does not show whether individual savers moved money between deposits and stablecoins or establish that bank deposits or lending changed.
The study examines how deposit pricing relates to stablecoin market growth, but its market-level results do not identify the decisions of particular households. EconoTimes previously covered the study’s baseline finding in an earlier report on the BIS research.
