Bain & Company estimates that mainland China's personal luxury market shrank 3%–5% in 2025, a setback for sellers of new luxury goods even as the separate secondhand market expanded.
The decline was smaller than the 17%–19% fall Bain estimated for 2024. The consultancy said demand began to recover in the third quarter of 2025 after a difficult first half, though the market still contracted over the full year.
Separately, Bain estimates that sales in China's secondhand luxury market rose 15%–20% in 2025. Resale accounted for less than 10% of the total luxury market, it said. Bain pointed to higher prices for new goods, a greater supply of pre-owned products and younger shoppers seeking lower-cost options. The 2025 increase followed a surge in resale during 2020–22 and slower growth in 2023–24.
Chinese brands also gained market share, according to Bain. It said products tailored to local tastes, online customer strategies and prices supported by access to local inputs helped those brands attract buyers. Bain described the broader luxury market as still largely led by Western brands.
LVMH reported a separate sign of pressure in the third quarter of 2026. The company said slower demand in China affected its fashion and leather goods division, which brought in €8.245 billion in quarterly revenue. Organic revenue for the division fell 5% from a year earlier across its worldwide business; LVMH did not provide a China-specific figure. The group's overall organic revenue rose 1%.
China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the economy grew 4.5% from a year earlier in the third quarter. Retail sales of consumer goods increased 1.1% in the first nine months of 2026. The bureau said domestic demand remained insufficient.
For 2026, Bain projects a small increase in China's personal luxury market but warns that the outlook remains volatile. Bank of America head of China consumer research Chen Luo told AFP that China would remain an important market for luxury brands but might not be a growth engine over the next two to three years.
