The Bank of Thailand held its benchmark rate at 1.00% as the baht faced pressure from oil prices and U.S. policy expectations, leaving Thailand’s currency outlook in focus.
In its decision, the central bank said the baht had lost ground against the U.S. dollar as markets adjusted expectations for U.S. monetary policy. It also cited higher oil prices as an added source of exchange-rate pressure.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to keep the rate unchanged at its Oct. 28 meeting, though one member could not attend. October’s decision was the fourth consecutive hold at 1.00%, following a cut from 1.25% in February.
MUFG Research maintained its forecast of 34.10 baht per U.S. dollar by the end of 2026. Lloyd Chan, the firm’s senior currency analyst, cited the baht’s low yield as a reason for caution and said a deeper oil shock could increase the risk of further depreciation.
MUFG has identified Thailand’s energy import costs and terms of trade as channels through which higher oil prices can weigh on the baht. In a March assessment, the firm compared the energy shock with 2022 and said Thailand entered the episode with a stronger external position.
The Bank of Thailand forecasts gross domestic product growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, citing exports and private investment linked to technology and artificial intelligence. It said businesses and workers in related industries are receiving most of those gains.
Household demand remains constrained by debt, fragile labor conditions and weak purchasing power, the central bank said, with pressure particularly acute for low-income households. Separately, it expects foreign tourist arrivals to decline amid higher oil prices.
Thailand’s exports rose 24% year over year to US$38,438.9 million in September, with electronics among the main growth drivers, the Trade Policy and Strategy Office said. Imports climbed 50.4% to US$44,295.6 million, leaving a US$5,856.6 million trade deficit. The MPC’s next scheduled rate decision is Dec. 23.
