Thursday's sharp rise in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) came with a mixed historical signal: Bespoke Investment Group found the S&P 500 gained in 79% of comparable six-month periods.
Bespoke data, cited by CNBC, put the VIX increase at 11.6 points, from 16.6 to 28.2. The one-day change was the biggest since the April 2025 tariff week dubbed “Liberation,” according to the firm.
Bespoke's analysis covered 19 cases dating to 1990. In each, the VIX began below 20 and rose at least five points. The S&P 500's median return was 4.8% after six months, with positive returns in 79% of cases. At three months, the median gain was 4.2%, and 68% of periods had positive returns.
One month out, the median return was 2.1%, but the arithmetic average was a 0.4% decline. A median marks the midpoint result, while an average is more affected by unusually large moves. CNBC attributed the gap to steep declines in 1990 and on Feb. 24, 2020, as the COVID-19 selloff began.
CNBC reported that technology-market volatility intensified. The Nasdaq 100's daily loss was its largest since March 2020, and the Cboe Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) rose more than 13 points to 38.3, its highest level since April 11, 2025. CNBC also reported that the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) market price fell below its net asset value.
CNBC cited an OddStats post that counted 12 earlier sessions with losses of 4% in the S&P 500 and 6% in the Nasdaq 100. One was during 2025's “Liberation” week, and three occurred during the 2020 pandemic, the post said.
SpotGamma data showed put options made up 670,000 of the 900,000 SMH options traded. Put premiums totaled $1.5 billion of the $1.7 billion in options premiums exchanged.
