By treating Hyperliquid's HYPE token as a classic cash-flow-generating fintech stock instead of only a speculative crypto asset, Grayscale is arguing that it is much undervalued. Using an "earnings per token" approach—modeled precisely on corporate Earnings Per Share (EPS)—the company claims HYPE trades at a significant discount relative to seasoned fintech competitors like Coinbase, Robinhood, Circle, Interactive Brokers, and PayPal. The investment thesis rests on the premise that Hyperliquid's growing trading volume and reserve-related income will produce strong, equity-like cash flows.
Grayscale projects Hyperliquid might produce about $1 billion in overall profits based on ambitious growth assumptions through 2027. This translates to expected profits of $3.25 to $3.75 per token, assuming a circulating supply of 270 million to 310 million 9HYPE by late 2027. This calculation suggests a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of about 15x to 18x at a token value of about $54, which Grayscale finds unexpectedly modest given the platform's potential trajectory.
However, the company warns that this optimistic hypothesis depends on several key growth elements enduring. If platform adoption slows down, the valuation model has major downside risk and results in poor network revenue development. Also, if token supply grows more quickly than expected, the ensuing inflation would reduce per-token profits and undermine the stock-like value proposition.
