Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said artificial intelligence could significantly harm the job market within two to three years, putting near-term employment risks ahead of a possible longer-run shift toward abundance.
Gates made both estimates in an Oct. 22 interview on The Verge’s Decoder podcast. He described roughly 20 years as a possible horizon for abundance after a period of disruption, while saying the estimate was approximate and could be shorter or longer. He described the transition as one with “winners and losers” and substantial disruption. The possible 20-year AI transition to abundance is the longer horizon in the same outlook.
For office work, Gates said AI could handle telesales, telesupport and accounting at lower cost, with faster turnaround and greater accuracy. He added that, if development is not greatly slowed, robots could eventually take on home construction, food production and surgery. These were projections; he gave no estimate of how many jobs could be lost.
In an Aug. 26 essay, Gates argued that AI could reach jobs in law, customer service, medicine, software and manufacturing over about a decade. He identified entry- and mid-level workers, along with young people facing fewer entry-level openings, as vulnerable to the shift.
Gates tied the pressure to automate to companies’ pursuit of savings: businesses adopting AI may lower costs, while competitors could feel compelled to follow. He warned that without policy changes, good jobs could become scarcer and gains could concentrate among fewer people. He also cited possible benefits, including lower-cost goods and services and improved health care and agricultural advice for low-income communities.
To illustrate the pace of change, Gates compared AI with earlier shifts in work. The move from farm work to office jobs took generations, he wrote, while personal computers took about 20 years to significantly change work practices. He argues AI could spread faster because it runs on devices people already use and can be operated through natural language.
Gates has proposed taxing AI and robots to help fund retraining and a stronger safety net, reserving some work for people, and considering shorter workweeks or earlier retirement. These are proposals, not announced policies.
