Bitcoin (BTC)'s MVRV measure sat at the 25.7% historical percentile in a reading shared Oct. 18 by crypto analyst Darkfost, as U.S. spot ETFs closed the Oct. 7-16 sessions with $936.3 million in net outflows.
The realized-value calculation ties each coin to the price at its latest on-chain movement. MVRV then sets that total against Bitcoin's market value. The 25.7% figure is a rank within past MVRV readings, not the ratio itself or a measure that Bitcoin trades 25.7% below holders' cost basis. That number alone does not pinpoint a market bottom. Darkfost also described Bitcoin's move near $87,000 as a rejection.
The outflow period followed $2.66 billion in ETF inflows over Sept. 21-Oct. 6. In the latest five sessions of the outflow span, Oct. 12-16, net withdrawals totaled $228.4 million. ETF activity reversed direction during those two sessions, with a $175.7 million inflow on Oct. 13 followed by a $261.4 million withdrawal on Oct. 14. The period total combines sessions with different directions; it does not mean investors withdrew money every day.
Other on-chain measures showed that, as of Oct. 13, losses realized by long-term holders were roughly 85% lower than the high reached Aug. 12. Through that date, coin spending in profit was about four times spending at a loss. These measures track realized outcomes and spending behavior, not changes in long-term holders' total balances.
Darkfost said the level might reflect fading selling pressure and emerging accumulation, although it was still higher than levels he linked with deep undervaluation around past market lows. The percentile does not establish that accumulation has begun. ETF flows, holder spending and MVRV describe separate parts of market activity, and the figures do not confirm a market bottom or a net accumulation phase.
