Bitcoin (BTC) returns tracked the Nasdaq-100 more closely in the later of two 30-date comparisons, though the correlation alone cannot identify a cause or show either asset’s cumulative gain or loss.
The coefficient was 0.36 in the 30-date window ending July 9 and 0.63 in another window ending Oct. 26. Both calculations compared daily log returns across 30 U.S. market dates shared by the two series.
The readings are snapshots from separate end dates, not a continuous record of the relationship between July and October. They do not show whether the correlation rose steadily, changed abruptly or moved back and forth between the sample endpoints.
The statistic compares the direction and consistency of the two series’ daily moves. It cannot establish what caused the relationship or whether either asset posted a net gain or loss across a longer span. A reading above zero is consistent with both markets advancing on some days and retreating on others.
The comparison used daily log returns, which express each session’s price move relative to its starting level. This makes proportional daily movements comparable even when the assets have different market prices. The 0.63 result represents a tighter relationship than the 0.36 result; it is not a 63% price increase or evidence that the markets moved identically.
China’s STAR 50 Index recorded a 39.8% decline between July 9 and Oct. 26. Over those 71 Chinese trading sessions, its close shifted from 2,185.83 to 1,315.50.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange’s STAR 50 draws its 50 constituents from the exchange’s Science and Technology Innovation Board, using market capitalization and liquidity to select them. It measures a segment of listed Chinese technology firms, not the entire industry.
The STAR 50 figures are separate from the Bitcoin-Nasdaq comparison. That correlation does not measure Bitcoin’s relationship with Chinese stocks and provides no evidence that the Chinese index’s decline drove crypto returns.
