Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than U.S. stocks during each of four selloffs exceeding 10% from 2018 to 2025, Bitwise Asset Management found, contrasting with gold’s smaller losses or gains.
In the most recent episode, from Feb. 3 to April 8, 2025, Bitcoin lost 24.39% and the S&P 500 Total Return Index fell 16.66%. Gold gained 5.97% over the same dates. Bitwise linked the stock decline to U.S. tariff announcements and trade tensions.
The gap was wider during the downturn measured from Dec. 28, 2021, to Oct. 14, 2022. Bitcoin dropped 59.87%, compared with a 24.18% loss for the stock index and an 8.95% decline for gold. Bitwise cited inflation, Federal Reserve rate increases and lingering supply-chain problems in its discussion of 2022.
Across all four stock selloffs in the analysis, gold rose twice and fell less than equities twice. Bitcoin declined more than the stock index every time. Those selected periods show how the assets behaved during particular market stresses, rather than their returns across the full span from 2018 to 2025.
Earlier World Gold Council research reached a narrower historical finding. Using the NASDAQ composite as its stock benchmark and data through January 2021, it found no consistent Bitcoin response to sharp declines in that index. Its benchmark and observation period differed from Bitwise’s.
The pattern changed after the 2018 market trough. Bitwise measured gains over the following 12 months of 78.99% for Bitcoin, 39.89% for the stock index and 18.14% for gold. That recovery window is separate from the selloff periods and does not by itself show an investor’s return across both a decline and rebound.
BlackRock reported annualized realized volatility of 40% for Bitcoin and 26% for gold in the 12 months through June 30, 2026. Volatility measures the size of price movements regardless of their direction.
In BlackRock’s hypothetical U.S. portfolio test covering May 31, 2016, through May 29, 2026, a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds had a Sharpe ratio of 0.81. Moving 1% from stocks to Bitcoin raised that measure of return relative to volatility to 0.90, while the portfolio’s largest peak-to-trough loss increased from 20.3% to 20.6%. A 2% Bitcoin allocation produced a ratio of 0.96 and a maximum loss of 20.9%. The historical test does not establish what future allocations would return.
