Bitcoin price dip lures interim bulls but longs advisable only if support holds at 3,685

Technically, after the formation of hammer pattern candles at 3,712 and 3,734 levels, BTCUSD has tested the strong support at $3,685.10 level to have bounced back above DMAs and shown stern bullish rallies upto the recent peaks of $4,218 levels. So, the Christamas and New Year season went well so far.

But on the contrary, the pair has given up its festive mood after sustaining sometime above $4,000 marks, and tumbles from there as the shooting star occurrence at $4,153 level signals weakness, with the pioneer cryptocurrency losing approximately about $500 within the span of 2-3 days. The slumps now seem to be halted currently at $3685-$3700 region at the press time.

While both leading (RSI & Stochastic curves) and lagging (SMAs & MACD) indicators still bearish bias to substantiate further downswings.

Overall, the aggregate market cap of entire cryptocurrency space is stood at US$120 billion. The mid of Q4’2018 has been a vicious drop in all cryptocurrencies, but with the bitcoin dominance, which is perceived a pioneer in the space could be used as a market wide confidence index, held steadily at around 50% during that time. 

For now, the puzzling question is that - can the bulls bounce back on the same strong support level? 

We reckon that, any near time in future, with SEC’s meticulous regulation in 2019, bitcoin unlikely to fetch return to >80% market cap dominance as the ICOs for other cryptos are persistently swollen in the ecosphere.

Hence, we could foresee near-term bullish risks for BTCUSD, only if it holds decisively $3,685 levels. It is wise to fetch a confirmation from both momentum (RSI and stochastic curves) and deploy fresh longs. Otherwise, one can look in for alternative arbitrage trading opportunities as shown below: (BTCUSD at Bitfinex and BTCUSD at Bittrex)

Please be noted that the BTC pricing against dollar at the same two different exchanges, BTCUSD at Bitfinex and BTCUSD at Bittrex. There exists a disparity in their respective prices $3,726.40 at Bitfinex and $3,625.34 at Bittrex. Thereby, buying Bitcoin on the Bittrex exchange with USD and transferring the bitcoin and converting it back into USD on Bitfinex likely to derive a profit almost upto 3%.

Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly BTC -55 (bearish), hourly USD spot index is inching towards -22 levels (which is mildly bearish), while articulating (at 07:29 GMT). 

For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex