Bitcoin (BTC) had 53.8% of its supply in profit on Oct. 20, following a brief reading above 60%. Analyst Darkfost links readings near 50% to investor hesitation.
The percentage describes coins counted as profitable, rather than the proportion of investors making money. A reading of 50% would mean half the measured supply was in profit. The Oct. 20 figure remained above that midpoint, even though the earlier reading above 60% did not hold.
This measure also differs from realized profit, which records gains when coins move. A coin can be counted as profitable without being sold, so the supply figure does not show how much profit holders have taken.
Darkfost interprets movement toward 50% as a sign of hesitation among investors. He said the improvement in profitability had been too limited to leave holders feeling secure about their gains. That is his assessment of sentiment, not a count of investors with profitable positions.
Darkfost said that, in past late bear markets, capitulation pushed the measure below 40% and its recovery to 50% was slow. The current reading is higher than those levels. His comparison does not establish that Bitcoin has reached the same stage of a market cycle.
The next indicator in Darkfost's assessment is whether the share can remain above 50%. Darkfost said steadier investor behavior is needed for the measure to remain above 50%.
