The data has been relatively resilient lately, and the BoC will want to wait for more evidence the economy is weakening further before cutting rates again.
The March jobs report was better than expected even if the details were soft. March housing starts rebounded sharply, even if the underlying trend remains fragile. The BoC quarterly business survey fell, but remained above 2012 lows. Q4 growth was decent, although January's data showed some fragility.
Recent speeches show that the BoC expects some tailwinds from US growth. It also expects a boost to consumer spending from lower oil prices. The BoC may be disappointed with the magnitude of these tailwinds. Falling oil prices, and the likely sizeable drag on energy related investment are headwinds to Canada's growth.
"We still think the BoC will cut rates twice later this year. We see a cut at next month's meeting, and another in July", Says Standard Chartered
