Two polls released Tuesday placed Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva before Brazil’s Sunday runoff, with CNN Brasil describing both results as technical ties.
Real Time Big Data’s Oct. 20 survey put Bolsonaro at 52% and Lula at 48% among valid votes. It interviewed 2,000 people by phone from Oct. 15-19 and reported a 2-percentage-point margin of error. Alfa Inteligência recorded 51.5% for Bolsonaro and 48.5% for Lula in a survey of 2,700 people conducted in person over the same dates; its margin was 1.9 percentage points.
CNN Brasil called both results technical ties. At the reported margins, Real Time Big Data’s estimates meet at 50%, while Alfa Inteligência’s ranges overlap.
PoderData/Aya’s Oct. 19 survey also measured Bolsonaro at 52% and Lula at 48%. It was based on 3,000 phone interviews conducted Oct. 16-18 across 695 municipalities in Brazil’s 27 federal units. The pollster said the four-point difference exceeded its 1.8-point margin of error. Its previous release, based on interviews from Oct. 13-15, had the candidates level at 50% each.
Monday’s two-poll results also showed narrow leads for Bolsonaro. The latest surveys come after the Oct. 4 first round, when Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) reported Bolsonaro with 47.03% of valid votes and Lula with 45.16%, with 99.99% of ballot boxes counted. The court’s final count for the 2022 runoff gave Lula 50.90%, against 49.10% for then-President Jair Bolsonaro.
TV Globo has scheduled a debate between the candidates for Friday, Oct. 23. Voting is set for Sunday, Oct. 25.
