Brazil's growth pace decelerates further and has yet to bottom out

The economic activity index shows that supply-side growth in Brazil fell to -0.1% in 2014versus 3.2% in 2013 (GDP growth in 2013 came in at 2.5%). 

More importantly, the index suggests that growth decelerated further in H2 14 versus H1 14 and decelerated more in Q4 than in Q3. Put simply, growth is falling at a sharper pace than before.
 
Societe Generale notes the following in a report on Monday...

• With January industrial production coming in low at -5.2% yoy, we estimate that the economy contracted by -1.1% yoy in January. 
  
  
• Moreover, the sharp contraction in exports (-24.1% yoy) and imports (-17.3% yoy) in February suggests that the pace of deceleration has yet to bottom out. 
  
  
• These developments will continue to hurt the economy in the near term. As a result, the possibility of the economy contracting again in 2015 is rising. 
  
  
• The medium-term growth outlook depends on the success of fiscal reforms in improving investor confidence. The longer-term outlook depends on the extent of structural reforms.