Brent crude fell 1.7% early Monday as traders weighed hopes for a U.S.-Iran agreement against shipping risks and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he could not cite progress.
ICE Futures Europe data put January 2027 Brent at $96.680 a barrel at 4:03 a.m. ET (09:03 UTC) on Nov. 9, down $1.64 from the previous settlement. Reuters said last week’s 16% retreat was Brent’s largest weekly fall since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
President Donald Trump told CNN on Sunday that the prospect of further strikes depended on Iran signing a “very strong agreement.” He described renewed attacks as “highly unlikely” if that condition were met. Rubio, speaking before leaving for France, said he could not cite progress and did not consider the two sides close to a breakthrough. He also said the discussions had not been very productive. No agreement was announced in the statements cited.
The price move came amid hopes for diplomacy, rather than a confirmed advance in talks. Reuters quoted Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen attributing oil’s weakness to expectations of a peace deal, without evidence that negotiations had moved forward. FXStreet separately reported that MUFG analyst Lee Hardman saw renewed optimism about a possible U.S.-Iran agreement as one factor behind lower energy prices. Hardman said negotiations would need to advance further for the decline to persist.
Shipping developments kept supply questions in view. Reuters said Washington and Tehran had each reported vessels coming under attack in waters near the Strait of Hormuz. A JPMorgan estimate cited by Reuters showed a global oil surplus of 1.1 million barrels a day in September, rising to 1.4 million in October. The report pointed to returning Middle East supply, increased output in other regions and weak demand as factors behind the surplus.
Rubio was scheduled to attend a G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Paris on Nov. 9-10. He said other ministers were likely to ask about the status of Iran diplomacy.
