The National Energy System Operator (NESO) expects Great Britain typically to have net electricity inflows across its interconnectors this winter, while system operators project adequate supplies despite wholesale power prices above France's.
NESO says Great Britain's wholesale power prices are currently broadly in line with those in other major European markets. Its base-case electricity margin is 5.9 gigawatts (GW), equal to 9.5% of average cold-spell peak demand. The operator expects sufficient operational surplus throughout winter, though tighter days could occur, most likely in December or January outside the Christmas period. NESO expects Britain typically to import electricity from France; flows with Belgium and the Netherlands may vary more, while Britain typically exports to Ireland and Northern Ireland.
National Gas forecasts peak demand of 493 million cubic meters per day on a 1-in-20 winter day, about 2% above last winter. It assesses total supply capability at 592 million cubic meters per day and expects overall gas demand to decline about 1%. Peak demand from gas-fired power generation is forecast to rise 7%. National Gas also projects UK Continental Shelf production will fall about 5%, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports rise about 6% from the previous winter.
NESO links elevated gas and power prices to conflict-related constraints on LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz and below-average European storage. European Union gas storage was 72% full on Sept. 30, 17 percentage points below its 10-year average. NESO says winter prices are higher and more volatile than in recent years, but remain below 2022 highs.
The outlooks assess wholesale market conditions and whether the energy system can meet demand; they do not determine household tariffs. The Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) has approved an agreement to maintain import capacity through the Great Britain-Belgium gas interconnector. The regulator cites declining domestic production and reduced interconnector capability as pressures behind the agreement.
Ofgem is consulting until Nov. 20 on a proposal to recover the agreement's cost from gas customers. It estimates the proposed charge at £1.19 per domestic gas account each year for five years. Gas account holders would bear the cost if the proposal is adopted; customers without gas accounts would not. The arrangement keeps import capacity available when gas is on offer, but does not secure a supply or assure that gas will flow.
