CADJPY Outlook: Loonie Limps as Dismal Jobs Data Fuels BoC Rate Cut Bets

CAD/JPY trades weak after dismal Canadian jobs data. Now trading around 114.45, it reached an intraday low of 114.17.

Released today by Statistics Canada, Canada's April 2026 Labour Force Survey revealed a net loss of 18,000 jobs (-0.1%), missing the projected 15,000 increase and marking the second consecutive month of stagnation in the face of US tariff pressure. With 51,000 more individuals joining the workforce, unemployment jumped to a six-month high of 6.9%; the employment rate dropped to 60.5%; full-time jobs fell by 47,000, while part-time jobs increased by 29,000. At $37.77 (from 4.7% earlier), average hourly pay increased 4.5% year over year, driven by higher earners; Quebec was most impacted (-43,000 jobs), while Ontario gained (+42,000); juvenile unemployment stood at 14.3%. This soft data suggests declining employment momentum, in contrast to the strong US NFP numbers. This could increase the likelihood of the BoC cutting rates, even with high wages. Expect CAD/USD to be volatile in the short term.

Technical Analysis

CAD/JPY is currently trading below the 34- and 55-EMA, 200 EMA, and 365 EMA on the 4-hour chart. The immediate resistance is at 115; a breach above that level could shift targets to 115.75/116.15/117/118/120. On the lower side, near-term support is at 114, and a break below this support could lead to declines toward  113/112.35/111.80/110.

Indicator Trends

 CCI (50)- Bearish

ADX (14)-  Bearish

Trading Strategy Recommendation

It is good to sell on rallies around 115.25-30 with a stop-loss at 116 for a target price of 110.